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The Drill Down
Thursday 1 October 2026
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Presented By
ASX: TM1
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Building a world leading PGM asset - MST Access $1.05 valuation
Terra Metals' Dante Project hosts large-scale Bushveld-style copper-PGE sulfide reefs just 15km from BHP's $1.7Bn Nebo-Babel development. With world-class polymetallic mineralisation from surface and strong metallurgical outcomes, Dante is rapidly emerging as Australia's next major PGM system.
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Lead Insight
First Quantum Provides Update on Cobre Panamá
First Quantum will engage constructively and in good faith after Panama's Ministerial Commission gave the President 17 recommendations. The first is formal negotiations on a new agreement that ends pending international arbitrations and puts Cobre Panamá into operation to fund an orderly closure at no cost to the state, with no possibility of extension. Any framework would also set a fixed, irrevocable allocation from the State's share of site revenue for an environmental plan and insulate technical management from political cycles, with ending the arbitrations a mandatory condition.
Our Take: First Quantum is choosing to negotiate on the commission's terms. Recommendation 9's reference to the State's share of site revenue points to a revenue-sharing structure, which fits Reuters' earlier report that a state tie-up was on the table. Value now turns on two numbers the report leaves open: the size of that share and how long the mine runs before a closure date that cannot be extended. Dropping a combined US$27 billion in arbitration claims is First Quantum's main bargaining chip, so expect it to want both numbers fixed before giving that up.
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Commodity Prices: 1 Oct 2026, 8:03am AEST
| Gold (USD/toz) | $4,158 -0.59% |
| Silver (USD/toz) | $60 -1.70% |
| Platinum (USD/toz) | $1,712 +0.17% |
| Palladium (USD/toz) | $1,207 -1.28% |
| Copper (USD/t) | $14,721.05 -0.23% |
| Nickel (USD/t) | $15,895.50 -0.34% |
| Zinc (USD/t) | $3,793.94 -1.25% |
| Lead (USD/t) | $1,862.10 -1.47% |
| WTI Crude (USD/bbl) | $90.05 -0.41% |
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Market Movers: Winners & Losers, Canadian Markets
Top Gainers
ICG +16.2%: ICG Silver & Gold Ltd.
First assays from six of 12 Phase 1 RC holes at the Tuscarora District in Nevada, led by T26RC-04 at the Battle Mountain target with 24.3m at 10.14 g/t gold and 3.4 g/t silver from 181.4m, including 4.6m at 51.84 g/t gold. All six holes hit gold and/or silver, true widths are not yet determined, and an inaugural resource estimate is planned for the first quarter of 2027. Volume of 1.86 million shares ran well above the 95,100 average.
EMPS +14.3%: EMP Metals Corp.
The most recent release, on 22 September, confirmed commissioning is complete at the Project Aurora demonstration plant in Saskatchewan, now running full-time with Saltworks Technologies as a continuous-flow lithium refining facility processing 10 m³ of brine a day. Momentum on thin volume of 94,280 shares is the likely driver.
GRDM +13.3%: Grid Metals Corp.
Maiden measured resource at the Lucy South deposit on the Falcon West property in Manitoba of 51,500 tonnes at 2.58% Cs₂O and 1.47% Li₂O, enclosing a higher-grade Pollucite Zone of 15,600 tonnes at 5.19% Cs₂O and 1.76% Li₂O. The estimate assumes a cesium oxide price of $30,000/t, and Grid holds 85% alongside Agnico Eagle subsidiary Avenir Minerals at 15%.
Top Losers
FM -15.3%: First Quantum Minerals Ltd.
Panama's Ministerial Commission recommended negotiating a Cobre Panamá restart to fund an orderly closure with no possibility of extension, making termination of the pending international arbitrations a mandatory condition. The stock traded as low as C$28.00 before recovering to C$38.23 on 10.22 million shares, as BMO and Scotia argued the report points to a long operating window. First Quantum says it will engage in good faith and awaits government guidance.
MMY -13.0%: Monument Mining Limited
Fourth-quarter FY2026 gold sales at Selinsing in Malaysia fell to 9,581 oz from 14,527 oz a year earlier, with cash costs rising to US$1,433/oz from US$701/oz and quarterly revenue easing to US$37.0 million. Full-year revenue of US$165.72 million and net profit of US$68.80 million were strong, so the weaker quarter drove the selling.
AZS -11.9%: Arizona Gold & Silver Inc.
Two new core holes at the Philadelphia Gold-Silver Project in Mohave County extended the Perry Zone down dip beneath Red Hills. PC26-173 cut 43.59m at 1.48 g/t gold, including 7.04m at 4.24 g/t gold from 455.80m, and PC26-172 returned 70.41m at 1.16 g/t gold. Grades well below the 20.43m at 9.04 g/t gold in 2025's PC25-156 likely prompted selling on the news.
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Presented By
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Sierra Nevada Gold
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ASX: SNX
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Emerging Saudi Arabian Developer & Explorer
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Sierra Nevada Gold is advancing As Safra, a large copper-gold system extending over more than 5.5km of strike in the Arabian Shield. Initial drilling has confirmed broad, continuous zones of mineralisation including high-grade intervals, with a major follow-up program now in preparation.
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Find Out More
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In-Country Operating Subsidiary
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Today's Stories
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Mining.com
Brazil Regulator Orders Partial Halt at Sigma Lithium Mine Over 'Imminent Risk'
Brazil's mining regulator ANM ordered Sigma Lithium to halt mining in part of Grota do Cirilo, citing an unspecified imminent risk and a ruptured section on the eastern slope of the north pit, according to a document seen by Reuters. The area stays under interdiction until corrective work is complete, on top of the recent suspension of the mine's environmental licences and an interdiction on its waste piles.
Our Take: This is the third regulatory action against Grota do Cirilo, so the question for holders has moved from what this stoppage costs to whether Sigma can clear the licence suspension, the waste-pile interdiction and the pit order together. A slope failure is an engineering fix, but ANM's warning of further measures for non-compliance leaves the timeline with the regulator.
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Mining.com
Coal Bank Financing Holds Near $117 Billion Despite Pledges
Banks provided $467 billion to the thermal coal value chain between 2022 and 2025, holding near $117 billion a year since COP26, according to German non-profit Urgewald's review of 744 lenders. Chinese banks supplied 62%, lifting annual lending 8% to $75 billion in 2025, while US banks rose 23% to $16.7 billion and EU banks cut 46% to $2.6 billion.
Our Take: European exits have moved coal's funding to China, the US and domestic lenders such as Indonesia's, where coal financing rose 64%, so the capital is still available at a different address. The risk for producers is concentration: a miner reliant on a few lenders is exposed the moment one adopts a coal policy, as Malaysia's 88% cut showed.
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Rare Earth Exchanges
Humanoid Robotics Accelerates Toward $5 Trillion: Rare Earth Magnets Become Physical AI's Hidden Chokepoint
Morgan Stanley models a $5 trillion humanoid robotics ecosystem by 2050, with cumulative NdPr demand potentially reaching 167% of 2030 levels by mid-century, Rare Earth Exchanges reports. China holds more than 90% of rare-earth refining and sintered magnet production and 97% of humanoid robot shipments in early 2026, though near-term robotics demand for NdPr is immaterial.
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Rare Earth Exchanges
US Department of Energy Launches $100 Million PROSPECT Push to Rebuild Critical-Minerals Workforce
The US Department of Energy's $100 million PROSPECT initiative spans 14 institutions, including West Virginia University, to rebuild the critical-minerals workforce, Rare Earth Exchanges reports. Mining engineering enrolment has fallen 45% since 2015, with more than 6,000 engineers needed over the next decade.
Our Take: The sharper shortage sits in separation chemistry and metallurgy, the processing stage Washington is working hardest to onshore, and those teams take far longer to build than a plant. At roughly $7 million per institution, PROSPECT is a start, and graduate placement into the supply chain is the metric that will show whether it lands.
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Bloomberg
Chile Copper Production Sinks to Lowest in More Than 15 Years
Chile produced 369,500 tonnes of copper in August, down 12.8% year on year and the lowest monthly output since February 2011, below even the 2017 Escondida strike, according to the National Statistics Institute. Output fell 7% over the first seven months, and the finance minister has warned the full-year decline could reach about 7%, against Cochilco's forecast of 2.6%.
Our Take: A 7% fall through July leaves Cochilco's 2.6% needing a sharp recovery over the final five months, and August went the other way, which makes the finance minister's 7% the more realistic working number. With Centinela unions able to strike from 13 October and Escondida supervisors rejecting their contract offer, fourth-quarter Chilean supply risk skews to the downside, a supportive setup for copper developers in other jurisdictions.
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ASX
Lynas Rare Earths to Acquire Meteoric Resources
Lynas will acquire Meteoric Resources and its Caldeira ionic clay rare earth project in Minas Gerais, Brazil, by scheme at 0.0207 Lynas shares per Meteoric share, implying A$0.286 a share, a 68.4% premium to Meteoric's last close, and an equity value of A$968 million on a 60-day VWAP basis. Caldeira would lift Lynas' reported Measured and Indicated TREO resources by about 79% and Ore Reserves by about 26% on a pro forma arithmetic basis, with a DFS production target averaging about 3,862 tonnes of NdPr and 127 tonnes of DyTb a year. Meteoric's board recommends the scheme, subject to an independent expert and no superior proposal, with implementation targeted for March 2027 pending Brazilian change-of-control approval.
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Mining Weekly
Tungsten Market Value Estimates Vary, but the Upward Trajectory Is Clear
Market Data Forecast values the global tungsten market at $5.14 billion in 2025, rising to $10.45 billion by 2034 at 8.2% a year, while other research firms put it anywhere from $1.84 billion to $6.66 billion. Fastmarkets assessed tungsten concentrate at $750 to $850/mtu at the start of the year and $2,500 to $2,800/mtu since 29 May, as cited by a paid media channel for GoldHaven Resources. China has limited exports to 15 companies for 2026 and 2027, and US defence procurement rules extend to mine origin from 1 January.
Our Take: The spread in market-size estimates matters less than a concentrate price that has roughly tripled on policy. From 1 January, US defence rules test the mine or ore stage and name recycled material explicitly, which puts a premium on primary ex-China ore and favours developers with permitted deposits over explorers still drilling targets.
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AFR
Northern Star's $5.6m Golden Parachute
Incoming Northern Star CEO Suresh Vadnagra, who starts on 5 October, is entitled to $5.6 million in cash if a change of control occurs before he commences: $4 million in lieu of sign-on rights and a $1.6 million sign-on payment, both compensating incentives forfeited on leaving Glencore. His package also carries $2.2 million in fixed pay, an STI of up to 140% and two LTIs each of up to 200% of fixed pay, subject to shareholder approval at the 2026 AGM.
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Miningmx
Sibanye-Stillwater Sits Out Capital Raise on Copper Project
Sibanye-Stillwater did not take up shares in Generation Mining's C$240 million raise, diluting its stake to 4.7% from 10.15% after 750 million shares were issued through a bought deal and private placement. Generation is developing the C$991 million Marathon copper-palladium project in Ontario, backed by the Canada Growth Fund, the Canada Infrastructure Bank and a Wheaton Precious Metals stream.
Our Take: Sibanye passed on a 51% back-in in 2021, so sitting out now confirms Marathon sits outside its priorities, with capital committed to about R20 billion of South African PGM projects and a strike at Stillwater's Nye section still unresolved. For Generation, raising C$240 million without its original strategic partner shows the state-backed funding stack can carry the project.
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Mysteel
ESDM: Indonesia Has Approved 95% of 2026 Coal Quotas
Indonesia's Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources has approved 95% of the 2026 work plans and budgets (RKAB) that set each coal miner's production quota, Director General of Minerals and Coal Tri Winarno said on 29 September. He declined to give approved tonnages and kept the 2026 output forecast at around 720 million tonnes, about 60 million tonnes a month.
Our Take: With 95% of quotas signed off and a quarter of the year left, permitting has stopped being the swing factor for Indonesian supply. A steady 60 million tonnes a month from the largest thermal exporter into the northern winter limits the upside for seaborne thermal prices unless demand surprises.
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Kamoa Capital
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This newsletter is for general information, education & entertainment. Kamoa Capital is not licensed and does not know your circumstances. Nothing here is financial, legal or tax advice. Seek professional advice and read any PDS before acting. We aim for accuracy but make no guarantees and accept no liability. Views are opinions only and may include forward-looking statements that may not occur.
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