The Drill Down
Monday 5 October 2026
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Presented By
ASX: TM1
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Building a world leading PGM asset - MST Access $1.05 valuation
Terra Metals' Dante Project hosts large-scale Bushveld-style copper-PGE sulfide reefs just 15km from BHP's $1.7Bn Nebo-Babel development. With world-class polymetallic mineralisation from surface and strong metallurgical outcomes, Dante is rapidly emerging as Australia's next major PGM system.
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Lead Insight
China Demands Copper Supply Commitments for Anglo Teck Merger Approval, Sources Say
China's State Administration for Market Regulation has asked Anglo American to commit to a steady flow of copper concentrate, including volumes sold through traders, as a condition for approving its US$54 billion merger with Teck Resources, three people aware of the matter said. China refines up to 60% of the world's copper cathodes but faces its worst feedstock shortage in decades. Every other regulator has cleared the deal, and the combined group would control around 5% of global copper supply, below the 10% to 15% typical of competition thresholds.
Our Take: So far Beijing is asking for concentrate. That is a lighter bill than Glencore paid in 2013, when clearing Xstrata cost it Las Bambas, later sold to an MMG-led group for US$5.9 billion. The cost lands on marketing: tonnes committed to Chinese smelters can't go to whichever custom smelter bids highest in a market short of feed. Settle on those terms and completion stays inside the September 2026 to March 2027 window Anglo has guided to.
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Commodity Prices: 5 Oct 2026, 8:03am AEST
| Gold (USD/toz) | $4,142 -0.85% |
| Silver (USD/toz) | $60 -1.01% |
| Platinum (USD/toz) | $1,700 -1.26% |
| Palladium (USD/toz) | $1,168 -1.07% |
| Copper (USD/t) | $14,595.54 +0.10% |
| Nickel (USD/t) | $15,494.50 -0.35% |
| Zinc (USD/t) | $3,696.07 -0.17% |
| Lead (USD/t) | $1,849.70 -0.41% |
| WTI Crude (USD/bbl) | $91.31 +0.05% |
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Market Movers: Winners & Losers, Canadian Markets
Top Gainers
WAU +34.8%: Walhalla Gold Corp.
Walhalla's most recent update, on 18 September, engaged RSC to rework historical data across its 1,230 km² Walhalla Gold Project in Victoria, which includes the past-producing Walhalla-Woods Point district (historical production of 1.68 Moz at 37.9 g/t Au).
BAY +23.1%: Aston Bay Holdings Ltd.
Aston Bay's most recent disclosure, on 27 August, outlined new near-surface copper targets at its Epworth copper-silver project in Nunavut from two converging 3-D geophysical inversions, on trend with 2025 surface showings including Greenback (29.2% Cu, 217 g/t Ag). TSX-V volume of 2.01 million shares against a 461,628 average points to momentum buying.
ATC +16.7%: ATERRA Metals Inc.
ATERRA closed at $0.07, above the $0.06 issue price of its $4 million to $6 million brokered LIFE offering led by Research Capital, announced 29 September. Proceeds fund Phase II drilling at the Totora copper-gold project in Chile, where a 24 September maiden inferred resource came in at 159.8 Mt grading 0.51% CuEq (0.30% Cu, 0.15 g/t Au), using US$4.00/lb copper and US$3,650/oz gold.
Top Losers
EVER -20.0%: Evergold Corp.
A sell-the-news reaction to Evergold's first 2026 assays from the GL1 zone at Golden Lion in BC's Toodoggone, released 2 October, which included 13.5 m of 2.84 g/t Au and 127.6 g/t Ag, with 4.9 m of 7.70 g/t Au and 186.0 g/t Ag, in GL26-031. Six of 16 holes are reported, with the remaining 10 and multi-element results still pending.
GFG -12.2%: GFG Resources Inc.
GFG fell after announcing a best-efforts private placement of up to C$7.0 million led by Paradigm Capital, with HD units at C$0.19 carrying half-warrants at C$0.285, flow-through shares at C$0.22 and premium flow-through units at C$0.266. The stock closed at C$0.18, below the HD unit price, with flow-through proceeds going to exploration in the Timmins district and closing expected around 23 October.
MERG -10.3%: Metal Energy Corp.
Metal Energy's most recent update, on 3 September, added a second rig at its NIV copper-gold project in BC's Toodoggone for the final weeks of the season, with six holes and about 4,200 m completed toward a planned 6,000 m and no assays yet released.
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Presented By
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Sierra Nevada Gold
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ASX: SNX
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Emerging Saudi Arabian Developer & Explorer
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Sierra Nevada Gold is advancing As Safra, a large copper-gold system extending over more than 5.5km of strike in the Arabian Shield. Initial drilling has confirmed broad, continuous zones of mineralisation including high-grade intervals, with a major follow-up program now in preparation.
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Find Out More
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In-Country Operating Subsidiary
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Today's Stories
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Yahoo Finance
Freeport Provides Third-Quarter 2026 Operational Update
Freeport's third-quarter production of about 830 million pounds of copper and 230,000 ounces of gold met expectations, though roughly 60,000 ounces of PT Freeport Indonesia gold sales were deferred to the fourth quarter. Grasberg mill throughput averaged about 140,000 tonnes of ore a day, around 67% of normalised rates before the September 2025 mud rush, and PTFI's Eastern Java smelter restarted in late August. Freeport expects 80% of capacity by mid-2027 and near full capacity by year-end 2027.
Our Take: Realised copper above US$6.50 a pound against unit net cash costs near US$2.10 means each pound Grasberg recovers on the way back to full rate carries a margin above US$4.40. The 60,000 deferred gold ounces land in the fourth quarter as by-product credits, which should help unit costs there. The date carrying the guidance is the Production Block 1S restart by mid-2027, timed alongside the 80% capacity target.
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Mining.com
KGHM, South32 Kick Off $725M Sierra Gorda Expansion
KGHM and South32 have started a US$725 million expansion at Sierra Gorda in Chile, adding a fourth grinding line that lifts ore-processing capacity by 26%. Construction begins in January 2027, with full capacity expected in the second half of 2030, targeting average payable copper of about 195,000 tonnes a year and a roughly 10% cut in unit operating costs. KGHM owns 55% and South32 45%.
Our Take: Two of today's copper stories make the same bet on existing plants: Sierra Gorda adds a fourth line to its own concentrator, and Glencore's MARA plan sends Agua Rica ore to Alumbrera's mill. On a reserve grading 0.39% copper, a 26% throughput lift paired with a 10% unit-cost cut is the whole economic case, and reserve life already extended to 2045 gives the new line a long runway to pay back.
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Bisnis
Adaro (AADI) Divests Kestrel for Rp14.5 Trillion, Plans Dividend
Adaro Andalan Indonesia completed the sale of its 47.99% stake and all warrants in Kestrel Coal Group to Yancoal Australia on 1 October for upfront cash of US$814.12 million (about Rp14.55 trillion) before tax, or US$734.83 million net. Proceeds will fund the group's business in Indonesia, dividends and partial loan repayment, with up to US$550 million in contingent payments over five years, shared across all sellers, if the Platts premium low-vol hard coking coal index exceeds a set threshold.
Our Take: The independent valuer put Kestrel's full equity at US$1.62 billion at 30 June, valuing Adaro's 47.99% at about US$777 million, so the upfront cash came in roughly 5% above that before the coking coal earn-out is counted. Banking a premium, a dividend and debt reduction while keeping a five-year price tail on premium low-vol coal is a clean exit for a group redeploying into Indonesia.
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Mining Weekly
Indonesia Launches Pilot Commodity Export Monitoring Platform
Danantara Sumberdaya Indonesia (DSI), set up by the government this year to supervise commodity exports, launched the pilot of its National Data Intelligence platform on Thursday, starting with selected exporters. DSI has monitored palm oil, coal and ferroalloy export transactions since 1 June, collecting volume, price, shipment and settlement data to flag discrepancies. President Prabowo has accused exporters of under-invoicing and transfer pricing, and in May watered down a plan to centralise exports through DSI.
Our Take: A monitoring layer leaves exporters' contracts and pricing in their own hands, which makes this far easier to live with than May's centralisation plan. The exposure sits in what the data is later used for: matched settlement and price records give Jakarta the evidence to revive centralisation or tighten reference pricing, and ferroalloy coverage brings ferronickel, the customs code Indonesia's nickel pig iron ships under, into scope.
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Kitco
IMF Says Bond Markets Are 'Orderly,' but Gold's Resilience Says Something Else
The IMF said global bond markets continue to function in an orderly manner, even as yields rise across advanced and emerging economies and US 10-year yields posted their biggest quarterly increase this century in the third quarter. Term premia have also climbed in the UK, France and Germany, yet gold holds above US$4,000 an ounce with Treasury yields at levels last seen in 2002 and real yields at 2.24%.
Our Take: World Gold Council data has Treasuries moving with equities since 2022, so a term-premium selloff now hits both sides of a balanced portfolio at once. In that scenario the 2.24% real-yield headwind counts for less than gold's lack of issuer risk, and producers with unhedged ounces carry the upside.
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The Northern Miner
Glencore Gets RIGI Nod for $4B Argentina Copper Project
Glencore has secured approval under Argentina's RIGI incentive regime for its US$4 billion Agua Rica copper project in Catamarca, providing long-term tax, customs and foreign-exchange stability. The MARA plan feeds Agua Rica ore to the existing Alumbrera plant about 35 km away, targeting about 200,000 tonnes of copper concentrate a year for the first 10 years of a 23-year life, from 1.2 billion measured and indicated tonnes grading 0.47% copper and 0.20 g/t gold. Alumbrera's restart is now expected in the second half of 2027, about six months early.
Our Take: RIGI fixes MARA's tax, customs and foreign-exchange terms for 30 years, covering the 23-year mine life with room to spare and taking Argentine policy risk out of the model. With the fiscal side settled, the variable that decides returns is construction capital on a 0.47% copper resource, and reusing Alumbrera's plant is the main lever on the US$4 billion figure.
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The Northern Miner
Pension Funds Use Gold as Bond Hedge Weakens
Pension funds in the Netherlands, US, UK and Australia have kept about 2% to 5% in gold, mostly through positions opened in 2020 and 2021, according to a World Gold Council report. The council said US Treasuries have stayed positively correlated with equities since 2022, weakening bonds as a diversifier, while gold's correlation profile has been more stable. Examples include the €7.7 billion Pensioenfonds PDN at 5% and Fairfax County Retirement Systems at about 3% of US$6.2 billion.
Our Take: Keeping gold near a 2% to 5% weight through a price that has more than doubled since early 2022 implies these funds have been rebalancing out on the way up, and the same rule makes them buyers on any drawdown, a slow-moving bid under the price. For listed miners, the case studies show allocators can get gold without permitting and operating risk through bullion and futures, so equities have to earn that money on delivery.
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Mysteel
China's Aug Refined Copper Imports Fall Further While Exports Rebound
China imported 209,300 tonnes of refined copper in August, down 13.87% from July and 20.56% year on year, as typhoon-related port congestion and import losses from a wide COMEX-LME spread curbed arrivals. Exports rose 44.67% month on month to 50,400 tonnes on an open export window and LME backwardation, while tight concentrate supply and scrap constraints are driving more smelter cuts, with refined output expected to fall further in September.
Our Take: Smelters cutting runs for lack of feed while still shipping metal into an LME backwardation shows where the shortage bites: at the concentrate stage, with China's refined supply tightening from both directions. That is the leverage behind SAMR's demand for Anglo Teck concentrate in today's lead, and it leaves miners with concentrate to sell holding the stronger hand in contract talks.
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Resource Talks
6 Junior Mining Stocks That Spiked This Week & 6 That Crashed
The Week 40 episode of Junior Mining Talks with Kamoa Capital runs through the week's junior mining gainers and losers, with a neutral summary of what moved each stock and why. Featured are Xcite Uranium (XRI), Mamba Exploration (M24), Nine Mile Metals (NINE), Dateline Resources (DTR), Bighorn Metals (HRNY), BOA Resources (BOA), Stallion Uranium (STUD), Cauldron Energy (CXU), Emperor Metals (AUOZ), Black Cat Syndicate (BC8), McFarlane Lake Mining (MLM) and Lindian Resources (LIN).
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Kamoa Capital
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This newsletter is for general information, education & entertainment. Kamoa Capital is not licensed and does not know your circumstances. Nothing here is financial, legal or tax advice. Seek professional advice and read any PDS before acting. We aim for accuracy but make no guarantees and accept no liability. Views are opinions only and may include forward-looking statements that may not occur.
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