The Drill Down
Wednesday 7 October 2026
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Presented By
ASX: TM1
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Building a world leading PGM asset - MST Access $1.05 valuation
Terra Metals' Dante Project hosts large-scale Bushveld-style copper-PGE sulfide reefs just 15km from BHP's $1.7Bn Nebo-Babel development. With world-class polymetallic mineralisation from surface and strong metallurgical outcomes, Dante is rapidly emerging as Australia's next major PGM system.
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Lead Insight
China Demands Copper Supply Commitments for Anglo Teck Merger Approval
China's antitrust regulator has asked Anglo American to commit to supplying a steady flow of copper concentrate as a condition for approving its proposed $54 billion merger with Teck Resources, according to three people aware of the development. The demand reflects China's struggle to secure copper feed for its smelters.
Our Take: SAMR wants concentrate supply locked in before it signs off on Anglo-Teck. That tells you everything. China's smelters are starving for feed and TC/RCs prove it.
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Commodity Prices: 7 Oct 2026, 8:03am AEST
| Gold (USD/toz) | $4,164 +0.57% |
| Silver (USD/toz) | $61 +0.46% |
| Platinum (USD/toz) | $1,710 -0.39% |
| Palladium (USD/toz) | $1,168 -0.56% |
| Copper (USD/t) | $14,772.22 +0.39% |
| Nickel (USD/t) | $15,642.50 +0.29% |
| Zinc (USD/t) | $3,747.39 +0.95% |
| Lead (USD/t) | $1,861.10 -0.25% |
| WTI Crude (USD/bbl) | $89.77 +0.37% |
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Market Movers: Winners & Losers, Canadian Markets
Top Gainers
SM +17.9%: Sierra Madre Gold and Silver Ltd.
Volume ran at 884,880 shares, about 5.4 times the 164,467 average, following its 28 September update that the Guitarra plant has reached up to a steady 720 tonnes per day, more than 40% above the previous 500 tonne nameplate. The new 11x12 ball mill is due to be commissioned in November 2026, which with existing mills is expected to reach the Phase 2 goal of 1,200 to 1,500 tonnes per day more than eight months ahead of schedule. Roughly 2.6 kilometres of development drives have been completed since June 2026 to feed the expanded plant.
PMI +16.4%: Perseverance Metals Inc.
The company closed a non-brokered private placement of 18,121,426 shares at $0.65 for gross proceeds of $11,778,926.90, with investments from Teck Resources, Altius Minerals, Crescat Capital and NQIM. Proceeds fund the diamond drill campaign at the Voyageur nickel-copper-cobalt-PGE project in Michigan, which is expanding the recent Osprey discovery, plus exploration at Lac Gayot in Quebec and Armit Lake in Ontario. The shares now trade about 20% above the placement price.
TNR +15.4%: TNR Gold Corp.
Altius Minerals disclosed that on 5 October it received a response to its non-binding proposal to acquire all TNR shares it does not already own and entered an exclusivity arrangement with TNR. Altius holds 30,937,500 shares, about 12.7%, after buying 7,437,500 at C$0.23 in July, and no decisions have been made on a definitive transaction. Volume was 989,420 shares, about 5.9 times the 168,138 average.
Top Losers
NMB -31.1%: NorthMin Corporation
Shares fell $0.14 to $0.31 from a $0.45 close the session before, despite news that its Irish subsidiary has been provisionally offered Prospecting Licence Area 186 in County Longford, which holds the Keel zinc-silver-lead deposit with historic JORC-compliant resources. The licence would give Northmin 100% control of Keel, 68 kilometres northeast of its Tynagh project, with final grant required before work begins. Volume was 84,579 shares against a 12,797 average.
LUC -15.6%: Lucara Diamond Corp.
Shares closed on the session low of $0.135 on 1.93 million shares, about 3.2 times the 603,797 average. Lucara's most recent project update, its Q2 2026 results on 7 August, put full-scale production from the Karowe Underground Project in Botswana at H1 2028, with US$275.9 million of costs to complete remaining at 30 June. Open pit mining at Karowe is due to conclude in Q4 2026, after which the mill runs on run-of-mine stockpiles.
ICG -14.3%: ICG Silver & Gold Ltd.
Shares fell $0.06 to $0.36 after hitting a 52-week high of $0.65. The company updated its VRIFY 3D model with its first six Phase 1 holes at the Tuscarora District in Nevada. The update features Battle Mountain hole T26RC-04, previously reported at 24.3 metres of 10.14 g/t gold and 3.4 g/t silver from 181.4 metres downhole, including 4.6 metres of 51.84 g/t gold. Results from six further holes are pending, with an inaugural Tuscarora resource estimate planned for Q1 2027.
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Presented By
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Sierra Nevada Gold
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ASX: SNX
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Emerging Saudi Arabian Developer & Explorer
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Sierra Nevada Gold is advancing As Safra, a large copper-gold system extending over more than 5.5km of strike in the Arabian Shield. Initial drilling has confirmed broad, continuous zones of mineralisation including high-grade intervals, with a major follow-up program now in preparation.
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Find Out More
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In-Country Operating Subsidiary
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Today's Stories
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MiningHub
First Atlantic Nickel & Cobalt Raises Total of $13.4 Million with Additional $3.49 Million No-Warrant, Non-Brokered Private Placement at $0.83 per Share, a Premium to Market, to Accelerate Exploration at Pipestone XL Nickel-Cobalt Alloy Project
First Atlantic Nickel & Cobalt closed a no-warrant, non-brokered flow-through placement of 4,207,230 shares at C$0.83 for gross proceeds of C$3,492,000.90, a premium of about 22% to the 5 October close. The company has raised approximately C$13.4 million from financings since September, and the placement remains subject to final TSX Venture Exchange acceptance. Proceeds fund expanded drilling at the Alloy Max and RPM zones of the Pipestone XL Nickel-Cobalt Alloy Project, an exploration access road toward Atlantic Lake and work at the Ophiolite X Project in Newfoundland.
Our Take: The 22% premium implies a 5 October close near C$0.68, almost four times the C$0.18 price of the company's February 2026 placement, so the C$13.4 million raised since September funds the expanded drilling at far less dilution per dollar. Flow-through shares typically price above market because subscribers receive the exploration tax deduction, so part of the premium is structure.
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GlobeNewswire
Kenmare Resources: Statement Regarding Possible Offer
Kenmare Resources confirmed it has received a non-binding proposal from International Resources Holdings RSC Ltd regarding a possible cash offer for its entire issued and to be issued share capital, following press speculation. Discussions are ongoing and there is no certainty a firm offer will be made. Under the Irish Takeover Rules, IRH must announce a firm intention to bid or walk away by 5.00 pm GMT on 17 November 2026.
Our Take: This is Kenmare's second possible cash offer since March 2025. The board ended talks with Oryx Global Partners and Michael Carvill that June after the consortium moved to pricing substantially below its 530p proposal, so IRH is approaching a board that has already shown it will turn down a bid it judges undervalues the Moma mine in Mozambique. Six weeks to the 17 November deadline will show whether IRH's price clears that bar.
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Reuters
ROI-China Turns on the Export Taps as LME Zinc Squeeze Grinds On
China's refined zinc exports reached 40,668 tonnes in August, the second-highest monthly total in almost 20 years, according to the World Bureau of Metal Statistics, leaving the country a net exporter of 4,388 tonnes for the first eight months. An LME squeeze opened an arbitrage window, and LME warehouses in Hong Kong have taken 35,000 tonnes since mid-August, lifting registered stocks from 88,000 to 126,975 tonnes. The three-month price has eased from a four-year high of $4,065 per tonne in early September to $3,715.
Our Take: The three-month price has retreated 8.6% from its early September peak, so the Chinese arbitrage now sets the ceiling for zinc miners outside China. Budel is the swing factor: if Nyrstar's review ends in closure, Western refined supply tightens again, but China holds 143,527 tonnes in Shanghai stocks and growing smelter output, so any fresh LME tightness invites more Chinese metal.
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Fastmarkets
US Demand Drives Sharp Increases in CIP Global Terbium, Dysprosium Prices
Fastmarkets' terbium oxide 99.99% CIP global assessment rose 41% to $5,000-8,000 per kg on Thursday 1 October from $4,200-5,000 on 24 September. Dysprosium oxide 99.5% rose to $2,500-3,500 per kg from $1,910-2,500 a week earlier, and ferro-dysprosium 80% to $2,750-3,850 from $1,375-2,100. Buyers are moving ahead of US Department of Defense sourcing restrictions from January 2027 that bar the Pentagon from procuring magnets containing materials mined, refined or produced in China.
Our Take: Caldeira's estimated 127 tonnes a year of dysprosium and terbium equals about 32% of the roughly 400 tonnes of non-Chinese capacity the article cites, which explains the A$968 million Lynas is paying for a project that completed its definitive feasibility study in July. Lynas targets closing in March 2027, after the January Pentagon deadline, so near-term demand lands on existing supply, and with one producer calling current pricing an artificial constraint, developers' offtake terms will matter more than spot prints.
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Miningmx
SA Mining's Price Boom Fails to Deliver Production Growth
South African mining production rose 2% in the year to end-June and stayed about 5% below 2019 levels, according to PwC's SA Mine 2026 report, even as revenue among the companies analysed jumped 38% to R786 billion and EBITDA rose 74% to R214 billion. Average dollar gold and platinum prices were 50% and 80% higher. Reserves increased, with gold up to 77 million ounces from 68 million in 2023 and PGMs to 298 million 4E ounces from 261 million.
Our Take: The 9 million ounce gold and 37 million 4E ounce PGM reserve gains are partly price-driven by PwC's own account, so a retreat in bullion or platinum would trim them. Production gained only 2% against average dollar prices 50% higher for gold and 80% higher for platinum, which leaves rail capacity at Transnet and the fate of the Mineral Resources Development Bill as the variables that decide whether the windfall converts into tonnes.
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Mining Weekly
Gemcorp Joins Madagascar to Raise $5bn for Energy, Mining
Madagascar's sovereign wealth fund, Fonds Souverain Malagasy, has partnered with Gemcorp Capital Management to mobilise as much as $5 billion over four years for hydropower, solar and mining projects. The FSM plans to build three hydropower plants and smaller solar facilities and to develop graphite, cobalt, nickel and rare earths deposits, with Gemcorp's role advisory at least initially. Gemcorp has deployed over $10 billion since 2014 and plans to open an Antananarivo office before year-end.
Our Take: The FSM cannot yet invest directly, so the $5 billion target rests on the development finance institutions and Gulf lenders Gemcorp can help it approach. Those lenders will price in a government led by an army colonel who took power in a coup a year ago, which makes delivery on the first funded projects, graphite, cobalt, nickel and rare earths among them, the test of whether the platform is bankable.
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World Gold Council
Central Bank Gold Statistics: Central Banks Continue Summer Spree in August
Central banks reported net gold purchases of 39 tonnes in August, taking reported year-to-date buying to 170 tonnes, according to the World Gold Council. China added 20 tonnes in its 22nd consecutive month of buying, with Poland and Uzbekistan each at 8 tonnes. Russia sold 6 tonnes, and Turkey bought 3 tonnes after three months of net sales.
Our Take: August's 39 tonnes is about 1.8 times the 21 tonnes a month implied by the 170 tonnes reported year to date, with Turkey and Russia net sellers over the period at 82 and 56 tonnes. China holds gold at about 9% of reserves against 90% for Uzbekistan and 79% for Kazakhstan, so it has far more room to keep adding than either.
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The Northern Miner
Silver Shortage Could Flip to Surplus in 2027: Deutsche
Deutsche Bank expects silver to average $70 per ounce by the second quarter of 2027, below the levels reached in the first half of 2026, as rising inventories and falling industrial demand point to a possible surplus. More than 914 million ounces sat in London vaults at the end of August, including more than 300 million freely available, up 70% since October 2025. Deutsche estimates solar silver consumption will fall more than 20% this year, with Chinese demand down 33%.
Our Take: Deutsche's $70 average for the second quarter of 2027 sits about 15% above Monday's $60.99, so the surplus call comes with a higher silver price and the pressure falls on silver's performance against gold. For producers that means price support without the scarcity premium, with the roughly 40 million ounces funds could release by December 2027 and China's persistent price premium as the swing factors.
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Fastmarkets
CME Lithium Contracts See Combined Open Interest Rise to Eight-Month High
Combined open interest on CME lithium hydroxide and carbonate futures reached an eight-month high of 29,195 lots on 30 September. Hydroxide stood at 21,188 lots, up from 16,389 on 30 June, while carbonate set a record monthly high of 8,007 lots. Fastmarkets' spot lithium carbonate was $15.20-18.50 per kg on 2 October, down from a mid-May high of $24.50-25.80.
Our Take: Hydroxide for June 2028 settled at $17.65 per kg on 1 October, about 14% above the October contract at $15.50, and consumers are hedging out to Cal-28, which gives developers a forward price to take to lenders and offtakers. That price comes with spot carbonate roughly a third below its mid-May high on midpoints, so the forward curve is pricing a recovery from a lower base.
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Kamoa Capital
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This newsletter is for general information, education & entertainment. Kamoa Capital is not licensed and does not know your circumstances. Nothing here is financial, legal or tax advice. Seek professional advice and read any PDS before acting. We aim for accuracy but make no guarantees and accept no liability. Views are opinions only and may include forward-looking statements that may not occur.
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