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Exclusive Report: Q3 FY26 ASX Producer Recap
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The Australian resources complex stopped behaving as a single asset class in Q3 FY26. Realised AUD gold above A$6,700/oz drove record free cash flow across the gold cohort - yet AISC dispersion within the mid-tier alone reached A$1,995/oz. Spodumene nearly doubled to US$2,105/dmt, ending a two-year capitulation. NdPr repriced off a US$110/kg Western policy floor, not the Shanghai index.
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Our latest Kamoa Capital Research Memo covers 30+ producers across gold, silver, critical minerals and battery metals. Tier-1 benchmark cohort. Twelve-name mid-tier alpha panel. Full cost curve with reported AISC verified to primary ASX filings. Producer-by-producer reads, the Kamoa Capital View on each, and a Q4 FY26 catalyst calendar through to September 2026.
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We identify the names generating the highest cash margins, the producers most exposed to the diesel pass-through, and the structural factors separating the cohort's winners from its guidance-cutters.
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Why This Matters:
Investors: Same gold price, twelve very different outcomes. Cohort selection now matters more than commodity beta.
Allocators: Where the AISC dispersion sits, which balance sheets are compounding, and how to frame the lithium re-cycle against the critical minerals policy floor.
Advisers: How consolidation premia have reset and what that means for developer valuations across the ASX.
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Kamoa Capital View
The margin compression narrative is fictional at the sector level. The diesel risk is real and lagging. The unhedged cohort is the only place to be. And the battery metals cycle has turned - execution is now the differentiator, not survival.
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The full report is available below.
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This newsletter is for general information, education & entertainment. Kamoa Capital is not licensed and does not know your circumstances. Nothing here is financial, legal or tax advice - seek professional advice and read any PDS before acting. We aim for accuracy but make no guarantees and accept no liability. Views are opinions only and may include forward-looking statements that may not occur.
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