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Kamoa Capital Saturday Newsletter
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PGMs and Copper - Two Critical Minerals Deficits the West Cannot Close in Time
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Two of the most important industrial metals on the planet are running into structural supply walls at the same moment, and the West has effectively run out of time to fix either of them. Platinum has gone from US$910 to a print of US$2,920 inside fourteen months. Palladium is up 87% on the year. Rhodium has cleared US$7,500. Copper just landed on the USGS Critical Minerals List for the first time, with S&P Global modelling a 10 million tonne deficit by 2040 against a supply curve that peaks in 2030 and declines from there.
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New mines take 15 to 20 years from discovery to first production. Anything not under construction today does not contribute to the 2030 equation. This is not a cyclical squeeze, it is a decade-long mismatch between what the energy transition, hydrogen economy, and AI infrastructure buildout require, and what the existing mine base can deliver.
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The interesting question is not whether these deficits are real, the bank desks and government lists have answered that. The interesting question is who is positioned in tier-one jurisdictions, on granted ground, with assets large enough to matter and small enough that the market has not yet priced them.
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This newsletter is for general information, education & entertainment. Kamoa Capital is not licensed and does not know your circumstances. Nothing here is financial, legal or tax advice - seek professional advice and read any PDS before acting. We aim for accuracy but make no guarantees and accept no liability. Views are opinions only and may include forward-looking statements that may not occur.
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