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On 10 April, Bloomberg reported China will halt all smelter-derived sulfuric acid exports from May. This eliminates the world's largest acid exporter from international markets at the exact moment the Strait of Hormuz closure has trapped roughly half of all seaborne sulfur trade.
This is not a single commodity disruption. It is a compound shock hitting sulfur, sulfuric acid, copper, phosphate fertilisers, and battery metals simultaneously, with no substitution pathway at industrial scale and no strategic reserve.
Cochilco estimates up to 12% of Chilean copper output is at risk. JP Morgan projects a 330,000-tonne global refined copper deficit for 2026. DAP fertiliser prices have hit record levels mid-planting season.
Our 17-page research memo covers the full transmission chain: supply-demand modelling, company-level exposure analysis across eight major copper producers, scenario frameworks, substitution timelines, and the investment implications on both sides of the structural divide.
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