| The Sunday WrapKamoa ViewTheme: The Gap Between Headline And ChequeCash Is Getting Deals Done. Scrip And Term Sheets Are Still Waiting.Gold Fields' proposal for Northern Star was worth A$38.7bn when it was made and around A$36.1bn by 25 September, with roughly 73% of the consideration in Gold Fields shares. Northern Star rejected it. Lynas' all-share bid for Meteoric was initially worth A$968m, but based on Lynas' latest close that value is now closer to A$876m.Compare that with the deals that actually completed. Yancoal paid US$1.85bn for Kestrel and Deterra paid US$74.15m for the Santa Cruz royalty. Both were cash.It is a similar story on the financing side. Troilus has US$850m credit approved, but the funding remains conditional. Mayfair has lined up C$310m, although only C$10m is currently binding. Talamore's C$450m transaction still depends on the 2 October shareholder vote. Goldgroup's US$75m investment into Luca is different again, that is cash coming directly from its own balance sheet.Against all of this, the copper market keeps tightening. Chile's August production was its lowest since February 2011, while growth in Chinese refined copper output is heading for its weakest year since at least 2000. There is plenty of capital being talked about. The companies that can actually convert it into cash and get projects moving are the ones that matter. |
| |
| Do you want exclusive access to future capital raises and investment opportunities?Join the Kamoa Capital Investor Register TODAY!Investor RegisterRegistration is not an application for securities and does not guarantee participation in any offer. Any offer is made separately by the issuer or an appropriately authorised party. |
| |
|
| |
| First Quantum Provides Update On Cobre PanamáFirst Quantum will engage constructively and in good faith after Panama's Ministerial Commission gave the President 17 recommendations. The first is formal negotiations on a new agreement that ends pending international arbitrations and puts Cobre Panamá into operation to fund an orderly closure at no cost to the state, with no possibility of extension. Any framework would also set a fixed, irrevocable allocation from the State's share of site revenue for an environmental plan and insulate technical management from political cycles, with ending the arbitrations a mandatory condition.First Quantum Minerals |
| Chile Copper Production Sinks To Lowest In More Than 15 YearsChile produced 369,500 tonnes of copper in August, down 12.8% year on year and the lowest monthly output since February 2011, below even the 2017 Escondida strike, according to the National Statistics Institute. Output fell 7% over the first seven months, and the finance minister has warned the full-year decline could reach about 7%, against Cochilco's forecast of 2.6%.Bloomberg |
| China's Refined Copper Output On Track For Lowest Growth In Decades This YearWood Mackenzie and Zijin Tianfeng Futures expect China's refined copper output to rise only 3% to 3.4% this year, against 10.4% growth in 2025, which a Reuters review of official records shows would be the weakest since at least 2000. Output rose 4% in the first eight months, but a tax crackdown on scrap is adding to the concentrate shortage, and sulphuric acid prices are down 11% in September, squeezing smelter margins. Planned maintenance at Chinese smelters in October and November could cut refined supply by about 80,000 tonnes.Reuters |
| Peru's Government Expects US$7 Billion In Mining Investments And Advances 240 Projects By Year-EndEnergy and Mines Minister Guillermo Shinno told Congress Peru expects over US$7 billion of mining investment by year-end, the highest annual figure in a decade, after US$4.1 billion materialised from January to July, up 45% on the same period last year. Permits went to 150 projects worth US$3.1 billion in the first eight months, with 240 targeted by year-end, and the new government is aiming for about US$40 billion of mining investment over five years. Copper output was 1.59 million tonnes from January to July, up 2.2%, while gold output fell 6.4%.Industrial Info Resources |
| Lithium Plunges 25% In China On Fears Over Battery Demand GrowthChinese lithium futures have lost a quarter of their value in September on concerns over flagging demand, with the Guangzhou Futures Exchange lithium carbonate contract falling below 120,000 yuan (US$17,900) a tonne from above 160,000 yuan at the start of the month. The contract prices the refined form of the metal used in EV batteries and larger energy storage systems. The move extends the retreat from a two-year high above 200,000 yuan reached in mid-May.Bloomberg |
| Mined, Melted, And Poured In America: President Trump Reverses Years Of Anti-Mining PolicyPresident Trump announced a US$15 billion Mesabi Metallics steel mill in Iowa that the White House says will create 1,750 permanent jobs, support up to 6,000 construction jobs and add US$95 billion to the US economy over a decade. The first phase is set to produce 7.5 million tons a year, rising to about ten million tons, using ore from Mesabi's newly opened Minnesota mine, described as the first new US iron ore mine in 50 years. The release also claims raw steel output is up 9% since Trump returned to office and that American mills supply 84% of the finished steel market, up from 77% in 2024.The White House |
| Gina Rinehart's Hancock Prospecting Takes A$680M Loss On Rare EarthsHancock Prospecting recorded an estimated A$680 million paper loss on its rare earths holdings over the past year, driven primarily by MP Materials and Lynas Rare Earths, with MP accounting for roughly two-thirds. Hancock retains an 8.4% stake in MP valued at US$834 million. Hancock has disputed the figure, and a spokesperson said its investments in companies with projects yet to be developed take a long-term view.AFR |
| Mining Giant Linked To Africa's Wealthiest King Sees Profit Jump From US$40 Million To US$395 Million As 2 Mines Boost Gold And Copper OutputManagem, Morocco's largest mining group, reported first-half profit attributable to shareholders of 3.778 billion dirhams (US$395 million), against 380 million dirhams a year earlier. Revenue rose 166% to 11.764 billion dirhams and EBITDA more than quadrupled to 6.197 billion dirhams, with the Tizert copper mine in Morocco and the Boto gold mine in Senegal at full capacity. Silver output at Imiter in Morocco and gold output at Tri-K in Guinea slowed, and Managem describes the second half of 2026 as a stage of consolidation.Business Insider Africa |
| US Department Of Energy Launches US$100 Million PROSPECT Push To Rebuild Critical-Minerals WorkforceThe US Department of Energy's US$100 million PROSPECT initiative spans 14 institutions, including West Virginia University, to rebuild the critical-minerals workforce, Rare Earth Exchanges reports. Mining engineering enrolment has fallen 45% since 2015, with more than 6,000 engineers needed over the next decade.Rare Earth Exchanges |
| |
|
| |
| Troilus Mining (TLG) receives a credit-approved commitment letter from KfW IPEX-Bank and Societe Generale to underwrite US$850M of senior secured project finance debt for the Troilus Gold-Copper Project, Québec, CanadaThe commitment forms part of a planned US$1.1B debt package that includes a proposed US$250M contribution from Export Development Canada, still subject to EDC's final approvals. The facilities carry up to a three-year repayment grace period during construction followed by a sculpted repayment profile over a notional 10 years, and remain subject to conditions precedent including diligence, definitive documentation, regulatory approvals and commitments for the full US$1.1B. |
| Talamore Mining (TALA) upsizes its proposed secured promissory note facility for the Coffee Gold Project, Yukon, Canada, from C$400M to C$450M (~US$316M)The notes carry 8.65% annual interest over a seven-year term in tranches of C$20M, C$80M and up to C$350M, with the third tranche conditional on final construction permits within 18 months of the first tranche closing. Subject to a shareholder vote on 2 October, Talamore expects to close the first C$20M tranche in mid-October, alongside a warrant early exercise incentive on 35.2 million C$2.50 warrants worth up to C$88M. Including the equity offering completed in July, the full package could reach as much as C$688M. |
| Mayfair Gold (MFG) signs a C$10M strategic equity investment and a non-binding term sheet with Macquarie Bank for a C$300M project finance facility, a package of up to C$310M (~US$218M) for the Fenn-Gib Gold Project, Northern OntarioOnly the equity is binding, with Macquarie subscribing at C$4.26 per share, a 10% premium to the five-day VWAP, while the facility remains subject to due diligence, an independent engineer's review and definitive documentation. The C$300M includes up to C$20M of capitalised interest and a C$25M early drawdown tranche, carries Adjusted Term CORRA plus 4.75% (stepping down to 4.25% after completion), and would fund the majority of the C$450M initial development capital in the 2026 PFS. Macquarie also takes an offtake right over the first 50,000oz of annual gold production, up to 300,000oz, at a reference price less US$50/oz. |
| Atico Mining (ATY) secures a US$111.4M financing package from Trafigura, comprising a US$95M secured project finance facility and a US$16.4M secured convertible debenture, for the La Plata project, EcuadorThe seven-year facility, made available to subsidiary Compañía Minera La Plata S.A. once conditions precedent are met, carries Adjusted Term SOFR plus 7.5%, with drawdowns available for roughly 2.5 years from the start of construction or 31 March 2027. The five-year-and-one-day debenture, issued to a Trafigura affiliate, pays 7.0% in cash or 10.0% in shares and will repay about US$3.5M of existing Trafigura debt and roughly US$7.0M owed to Dundee Corporation, with the balance funding pre-construction work. Atico will also issue 16,149,870 shares at about US$0.1548 each to settle a further US$2.5M of Trafigura debt. |
| Goldgroup Mining (GORO) commits US$75M to Luca Mining's (LUCA) US$110M subscription receipt placement, funding part of Luca's cash consideration for the Cozamin Mine, Zacatecas, MexicoThe commitment replaces Trafigura's US$75M equity backstop and is sized at US$75M or the amount giving Goldgroup approximately 19.9% of Luca on a non-diluted pro forma basis once the receipts convert and the Cozamin acquisition completes. Goldgroup is funding it from existing cash, drawing on its recently completed placement of approximately US$121.8M, and expects to retain about US$91M before transaction costs and other committed uses. The receipts convert one-for-one into Luca shares on escrow release, including completion of Cozamin and regulatory approvals. |
| |
|
| |
| Northern Star Resources (NST) rejects an unsolicited, non-binding indicative proposal from Gold Fields (GFI) to acquire 100% of the company by scheme of arrangement, at an implied equity value of A$38.7B (~US$26.9B)The proposal, received 14 September, offered 0.3125 new Gold Fields shares (as CDIs) plus A$7.25 cash per Northern Star share, implying A$27.00 per share and a 22% premium to the 11 September close, with roughly 73% of the consideration in Gold Fields stock. On Gold Fields' 25 September close the implied value had fallen to A$25.19 per share and A$36.1B. The board said the proposal materially undervalued Northern Star and would have shifted shareholders into a higher jurisdictional risk profile, while Gold Fields has said it remains focused on engagement with the board. |
| Yancoal Australia (YAL) completes the acquisition of Kestrel Coal Group, holder of an 80% interest in the Kestrel metallurgical coal mine in Queensland's Bowen Basin, for US$1.85B in upfront cash plus up to US$550M contingentThe upfront consideration, subject to customary completion adjustments, was funded from available cash and an initial draw on a five-year US$1.2B syndicated acquisition loan, with the contingent cash payable only if the benchmark coal price exceeds US$225/t in any of the first five years after completion. Kestrel Coal Group was acquired from EMR Capital and Adaro Capital entities, and Mitsui (8031) retains the remaining 20% as joint venture partner. Yancoal recognises attributable Kestrel production, revenue and earnings from 1 October 2026. |
| Lynas Rare Earths (LYC) signs a binding scheme implementation deed to acquire 100% of Meteoric Resources (MEI), owner of the Caldeira ionic clay rare earth project in Minas Gerais, Brazil, in an all-share deal valued at A$968M (~US$672M)Meteoric shareholders will receive 0.0207 new Lynas shares per share, implying A$0.286 per share on Lynas's last close, a 68.4% premium to Meteoric's A$0.170 close, and will own approximately 5.9% of the combined group on a fully diluted basis. The A$968M is struck on Lynas's 60-day VWAP of A$15.29; on Lynas's A$13.83 last close the implied value is closer to A$876M. Lynas will also provide an unsecured interim funding facility of up to A$110M, with an initial A$35M tranche available on execution of the deed. |
| Deterra Royalties (DRR) acquires an existing 1.75% net smelter return royalty covering a substantial portion of Ivanhoe Electric's (IE) Santa Cruz copper project in Arizona, USA, for US$74.15MDeterra and Ivanhoe Electric concurrently amended the royalty to 1.68% until the sixth anniversary of commercial production, stepping down to 1.57% thereafter. The royalty area covers approximately 84% of the Mineral Reserves in Ivanhoe Electric's updated 2026 PFS (foreign estimate, reported under S-K 1300, not JORC), with first copper cathode projected for 2029, subject to project financing and permitting. Santa Cruz becomes Deterra's third core asset, alongside its Mining Area C iron ore and Thacker Pass lithium royalties. |
| |
|
| |
| Brazilian Rare Earths (ASX:BRE)31.3m at 2.5% TREO from 38.8mSulista, Bahia, Brazil |
| TomaGold (TSXV:LOT)69.4m at 3.46% ZnEq from 784.2mBerrigan Mine, Québec, Canada |
| Cascadia Minerals (TSXV:CAM)75.55m at 2.18% CuEq from 425.7mCarmacks, Yukon, Canada |
| Canagold Resources (TSX:CCM)13.2m at 19.38 g/t Au and 3.83% Sb from 451.8mNew Polaris, British Columbia, Canada |
| Emperor Metals (CSE:AUOZ)32m at 5.9 g/t Au from 365mDuquesne West, Québec, Canada |
| |
|
| |
| Week-on-Week | Price | % |
| Gold | US$4,181.90/oz | -1.96% |
| Silver | US$61.10/oz | -4.20% |
| Platinum | US$1,717.00/oz | -1.72% |
| Palladium | US$1,168.00/oz | -6.11% |
| Rhodium | US$9,100.00/oz | -3.70% |
| Copper | US$14,335.00/t | -2.91% |
| Nickel | US$15,570.00/t | -4.60% |
| Zinc | US$3,834.00/t | -3.69% |
| Lead | US$1,837.00/t | -3.32% |
| Aluminium | US$3,120.00/t | -3.35% |
| Tin | US$54,400.00/t | +0.97% |
| Iron Ore | US$92.10/t | -5.19% |
| Manganese | US$4.30/dmtu | +0.10% |
| Uranium | US$89.45/lb | -0.28% |
| WTI Crude* | US$92.87/bbl | -1.84% |
| Lithium | US$20,077.77/t | -7.72% |
| Cobalt | US$39,140.00/t | -1.26% |
| Molybdenum | US$92,594.02/t | 0.00% |
| Antimony | US$15,474.28/t | -0.86% |
| Tungsten | US$146,166.67/t | -4.75% |
| Niobium‡ | US$957.77/t | -0.06% |
| Neodymium | US$154.85/kg | 0.00% |
| Praseodymium | US$171.72/kg | -3.32% |
|
| Prices sourced from Pulse Intelligence, week-on-week to Thursday 1 October 2026 (Friday close not yet available for all series at time of writing). *WTI Crude sourced from Investing.com. ‡Quoted basis under review. |
| |
| Website | LinkedIn | Instagram | YouTubeThis newsletter is for general information, education and entertainment. Kamoa Capital is not licensed and does not know your circumstances. Nothing here is financial, legal or tax advice. Seek professional advice and read any PDS before acting. We aim for accuracy but make no guarantees and accept no liability. Views are opinions only and may include forward-looking statements that may not occur. |
|
