| The Sunday Wrap |
| Rare Earths From Trump-Backed US Mines Sold to Asia |
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| The Financial Times reports that rare earths from Trump-backed US mines are still being sold into Asia, underscoring how far the country remains from consuming its own output. MP Materials, the Pentagon-backed operator of the only active US mine at Mountain Pass, halted all sales to China in 2025 but now sells its refined neodymium-praseodymium oxide and metal primarily to buyers in Japan and South Korea. Until domestic magnet capacity scales up, US mine output has few buyers at home despite billions in federal backing. |
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| Carney Pitches Tighter Canada-Saudi Mining and Energy Ties |
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| Prime Minister Mark Carney, the first Canadian prime minister to visit Saudi Arabia in 26 years, met Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in Jeddah to pitch closer mining and energy cooperation. Saudi Arabian investors are said to be interested in Canadian energy, mining and infrastructure. |
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| Reuters |
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| Macquarie Says Copper Price Rally Still Running Ahead of Reality |
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| Macquarie says copper's rally is being driven by investor positioning, short-covering and tariff-related trade flows rather than physical tightness, with visible stocks up more than 870,000 tonnes since early 2025 and LME inventories at eight-year highs. The bank trimmed its 2026 demand growth forecast to 1.8% and is sceptical on near-term AI data-centre copper demand, though it stays structurally bullish long term. |
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| Mining.com |
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| Why Walking Away From Vault Could Be Regis' Finest Hour |
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| The AFR's Street Talk argues Regis Resources should let its agreed merger with Vault Minerals lapse rather than match Genesis Minerals' superior A$5.6 billion bid, a 14.5% premium that won Vault's board backing this week. Regis has five business days to respond, and the column's view is that walking away preserves capital discipline amid frothy gold M&A. |
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| Australian Financial Review |
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| BHP Staff Confirm Historic Strike Action at Mining Giant's Port Hedland Operations |
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| BHP port workers have given notice of an eight-hour strike on 16 July at Port Hedland, the world's largest bulk iron ore export terminal, after roughly seven months of stalled enterprise bargaining over pay and conditions. Represented by the Combined Ports Unions and covering around 450 employees, it is the first protected industrial action at BHP's Pilbara operations this century. Unions hold authorisation for further rolling stoppages, and a full day of disruption puts about A$120 million of BHP iron ore revenue at risk. |
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| ABC News |
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| Canada Tells UAE It Has No Projects Ready for Billions in Pledged Investment, Report |
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| Canada's Major Projects Office told a UAE delegation in mid-June it was not ready to receive the billions Abu Dhabi has pledged, citing a lack of projects advanced enough to deploy capital, according to the Financial Times. Prime Minister Mark Carney secured a roughly C$70 billion (about US$50 billion) commitment last November, but officials say none has been deployed and a critical minerals deal announced at the same time has yet to materialise. The admission raises pressure ahead of a September Toronto summit meant to attract $1 trillion over five years. |
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| i24NEWS |
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| Coal Is Back in AustralianSuper's Portfolio. What Happened to That Net Zero Pledge? |
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| AustralianSuper, the country's largest super fund at about A$388 billion and 3.7 million members, has become the single biggest investor in Whitehaven Coal, which runs six coalmines across NSW and Queensland and is developing more. The position sits awkwardly with the net zero by 2050 pledge the fund made in 2020, when it divested Whitehaven on climate grounds, and has prompted questions across the sector about alignment. The fund argues thermal coal will remain a stabilising source of grid power through the transition, and its 2050 target covers only scope 1 and 2 portfolio emissions, with no policy excluding coal. |
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| The Guardian |
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THEME: CAPITAL AHEAD OF CAPACITY
The Wall of Capital Meets a Shortage of Deployable Projects
The clearest signal across the desk this week was capital, not physical demand. Washington's own rare-earth champion is still shipping oxide and metal to Japan and South Korea because the United States has no magnet capacity to absorb it at home, federal billions notwithstanding. Macquarie read copper the same way, calling the rally a function of positioning, short-covering and tariff trade flows rather than genuine tightness, with LME inventories at eight-year highs. The binding constraint sits downstream, in the capacity to turn raw material into finished product.
With supply loose, the money is competing for control of known assets. Two live contests framed the week, Genesis topping Regis with an A$5.6 billion scheme for Vault, and Austral lobbing a non-binding tilt at Hammer against Larvotto's agreed bid. Majors are pruning in parallel, with First Majestic selling San Martin for US$90 million to sharpen its book. The wave reshuffles who owns existing ounces rather than expanding the pipeline.
Primary capital, meanwhile, is funding the drill bit and the land title well ahead of construction. Magna drew C$140 million from Alpayana, Cobre banked A$90 million for Sierra Atacama, Arras and Aldebaran's Centauri each closed C$25 million, and Unico bolted on the freehold under Joaquin. State capital is circling the same prize, from Carney's pitch in Jeddah to the Australia-India uranium opening, yet the Canada-UAE stumble is the tell, with billions pledged and no projects advanced enough to take the cheque. The re-rate this cycle accrues to the permitted, demand-connected asset that can convert a mandate into metal.
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| Magna Mining (NICU) announces a C$140M (~US$98.8M) strategic investment from Alpayana via a non-brokered private placement. |
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| The placement covers 62,222,222 shares at C$2.25 each, leaving Peruvian miner Alpayana with about 19.9% of Magna at closing. Net proceeds fund the advancement of Magna's development projects in the Sudbury Basin, including its past-producing Levack and Crean Hill assets, plus general corporate and working capital. |
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| 6 July 2026 |
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| Cobre (CBE) completes a two-tranche A$90M (~US$62M) placement to fast-track its Sierra Atacama copper mine in Chile. |
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| The company received firm commitments for about 300 million new shares at A$0.30 each, cornerstoned by major shareholders Tribeca Investment Partners and Strata Investment Holdings. Tranche 1 raises about A$72M under existing placement capacity, with Tranche 2 subject to shareholder approval. Proceeds go toward increasing ownership in Sierra Atacama, debt repayment, exploration and development, and the Botswana projects. |
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| 9 July 2026 |
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| Aldebaran Resources (ALDE) and subsidiary Centauri Minerals launch a C$17M brokered and concurrent C$8M non-brokered placement, C$25M combined (~US$17.7M), alongside the Centauri spin-out. |
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| Centauri has agreed to sell up to 17,000,000 subscription receipts at C$1.00 each on a best-efforts basis, with TD Securities as lead agent and sole bookrunner, plus a concurrent C$8M non-brokered tranche. The raise is tied to the spin-out of Centauri from Aldebaran first announced on 1 June 2026. |
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| 6 July 2026 |
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| Arras Minerals (ARK) closes an upsized C$25M (~US$17.7M) bought deal to fund its Kazakhstan copper-gold exploration. |
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| The financing placed 18,382,175 shares at C$1.36 each, including full exercise of the underwriters' option, through a syndicate led by Haywood Securities. Proceeds fund exploration and development across Arras' properties in Kazakhstan, including the Elemes copper-gold porphyry project, with the company lifting its 2026 drilling program to 40,000 metres. |
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| 7 July 2026 |
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| Genesis Minerals (GMD) delivers a superior binding proposal to merge with Vault Minerals (VAU) via scheme of arrangement, valuing Vault at A$5.6B (~US$3.9B). |
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| Vault shareholders would receive 0.7629 Genesis shares plus A$0.475 cash per share, implying A$5.274 per Vault share and leaving Genesis holders with about 59.8% of the enlarged group and Vault holders 40.2%. Genesis flags potential post-tax synergies of around A$2.0 billion, helped by the proximity of the two companies' operations at Leonora. Vault's board has unanimously assessed the offer as a superior proposal. |
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| 6 July 2026 |
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| Austral Resources (AR1) submits a non-binding indicative proposal to acquire Hammer Metals (HMX) at an implied A$0.087 per share, about A$80.8M (~US$56M) total equity value. |
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| The proposal pitches a 29.9% premium to Larvotto Resources' existing scheme for Hammer, combining Austral scrip with shares in a new company holding Hammer's Western Australian gold assets. Austral wants Hammer's Kalman copper resource as feed for its Rocklands plant near Cloncurry. The bid is conditional on due diligence, documentation and a Hammer board recommendation, and the Hammer board has not yet judged it superior to the Larvotto proposal. |
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| 7 July 2026 |
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| Core Silver (CC) enters a definitive arrangement agreement to merge with Arcus Development Group (ADG) in an all-share, at-market combination. |
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| Core Silver will acquire all Arcus shares on a 1:1 basis, leaving existing Core Silver and Arcus holders with about 60.8% and 39.2% of the combined company. The deal adds Arcus' Touleary property in the Yukon, fully permitted for 2026 drilling, alongside Core Silver's British Columbia ground. Completion is targeted for the fourth quarter of 2026, subject to Arcus shareholder, court and TSX-V approvals. |
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| 9 July 2026 |
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NGEx Minerals (NGEX : TSX)
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| 573.4m at 2.17% CuEq from 274.6m |
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| Lunahuasi (Argentina) |
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| The standout of the week by a distance, a wide, high-grade copper-gold hit that keeps extending Lunahuasi at depth. At a $5.5B cap the leverage is thin, but an intercept this size resets a district rather than a drill hole. |
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ATEX Resources (ATX : TSX)
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| 692m at 1.11% CuEq from 916m |
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| Valeriano (Chile) |
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| A near 700m copper-gold hit from deep in the Valeriano porphyry, the kind of width that underwrites a maiden resource rather than tweaks one. Still years from cash flow, so scale and continuity carry the story ahead of grade. |
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Argenta Silver (AGAG : TSXV)
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| 28m at 446 g/t Ag from 334m |
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| El Quevar (Argentina) |
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| The cleanest silver hit of the week, high grade held over real width rather than a single bonanza sliver. At a $150M cap this is the grade-plus-thickness that drives a resource re-rate. |
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West Point Gold (WPG : TSXV)
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| 56.4m at 4.24 g/t Au from 242.3m |
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| Gold Chain (USA) |
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| Strong gold grade over more than 50m, the sort of width at grade that builds an inventory fast. At a mid-cap valuation the re-rate leverage is live if the zone extends along strike. |
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Mogotes Metals (MOG : TSXV)
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| 180m at 0.98% CuEq from 108m |
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| Mogote, Filo Sur (Argentina) |
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| A broad copper-gold porphyry hit in the Filo Sur corridor, early enough that a $200M cap still carries real discovery torque. Grade is modest, but 180m of continuous mineralisation this early is the re-rate setup. |
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| Week-on-Week |
Price |
% |
| Gold |
US$4,121/oz |
-1.29% |
| Silver |
US$60.00/oz |
-3.23% |
| Platinum |
US$1,631/oz |
-0.49% |
| Palladium |
US$1,273/oz |
+0.55% |
| Copper |
US$13,901/t |
+1.14% |
| Nickel |
US$16,635/t |
+1.76% |
| Zinc |
US$3,611/t |
+1.72% |
| Lead |
US$1,887/t |
-0.10% |
| WTI Crude |
US$71.41/bbl |
+4.42% |
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| Month-on-Month |
Price |
% |
| Tin (LME)* |
US$50,375.00/t |
-3.64% |
| Lithium Carbonate (China)* |
US$14,241.34/t |
+2.63% |
| NdPr Oxide (FOB China)* |
US$90.34/kg |
-1.72% |
| Fluorspar (90%)* |
US$438.42/t |
-0.21% |
| Antimony* |
US$16.60/kg |
-5.01% |
| Niobium* |
US$31.02/kg |
-0.03% |
| Tungsten* |
US$159.51/kg |
-1.93% |
| Gallium* |
US$239.32/kg |
-1.20% |
| Germanium* |
US$2,995.02/kg |
+4.35% |
| Uranium (U3O8)* |
US$189.71/kg |
-0.88% |
*Sourced from Critical Minerals Platform (CMP). These prices are APAC volume-weighted averages from producers rather than traders, meaning they are heavily weighted towards Chinese prices for minerals where China dominates production. All other commodities show week-on-week change.
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This newsletter is for general information, education and entertainment. Kamoa Capital is not licensed and does not know your circumstances. Nothing here is financial, legal or tax advice. Seek professional advice and read any PDS before acting. We aim for accuracy but make no guarantees and accept no liability. Views are opinions only and may include forward-looking statements that may not occur.
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