| The Sunday Wrap |
| Rare Earths Are the New Oil |
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| An opinion piece argues rare earths now hold the strategic position oil occupied last century, with China's dominance mirroring the leverage OPEC and Saudi Arabia once wielded through spare capacity. It notes untapped resources across Australia, Canada, Brazil, Greenland, Africa, Southeast Asia and Central Asia, citing Washington's approval of preliminary applications for up to US$1.6 billion in federal financing for Kaz Resources' Kazakhstan tungsten project, and calls for a cooperative mechanism before dependence bites. |
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| Mining Services Companies Soar After Near-Death Experiences |
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| Macmahon Holdings and NRW have staged a comeback from the brink of collapse nearly a decade ago, with their shares up 201% and 123% respectively over the past 12 months on the back of Australia's strong resources sector. Materials has been the best-performing sector on the ASX over the same period, rising 41%, driven by demand for the resources feeding the artificial intelligence build-out and the energy transition. |
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| Australian Financial Review |
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| Ghana Approves Revised Mining Law to Strengthen Oversight |
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| Ghana's cabinet approved a revised mining law that caps single exploration licences at five years, replacing reconnaissance and prospecting permits. The law would also create district mining committees to strengthen oversight. |
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| Reuters |
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| EU Announces Restrictions on Trading Sudanese Gold |
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| The EU has imposed new sanctions on Sudan, banning the purchase, import or transfer of Sudanese gold, which it says is financing the conflict between the army and the Rapid Support Forces. The measures also bar exports of mercury and cyanide, both used in gold processing, to the country. |
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| Mining.com |
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| EU Warns Push to Diversify Away From China Will Need Funding |
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| Bloomberg reports the EU is developing a "solidarity instrument" to help companies diversify critical supplies away from China and cushion any Beijing retaliation, but the tool needs funding just as member states fight over the bloc's next budget. Brussels is trying to close a trade deficit with China that now tops 360 billion euros, even as Beijing keeps its grip on the minerals and chips underpinning European defence and autos. |
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| Bloomberg |
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THEME: STATE CAPITAL WANTS OWNERSHIP
Governments Move From the Rulebook to the Register
Global governments spent this week reaching past regulation and toward equity. Angola told the market it wants a stake in De Beers to help shape strategy as Anglo closes out the sale, a position royalties and permits do not buy. Ghana capped single exploration licences at five years and stood up district committees to police them. Saudi Arabia consolidated energy and mining under one minister by royal order. Washington moved on financing for a Kazakh tungsten project. The masthead's argument that rare earths now sit where oil once sat is really a claim about leverage, and governments are behaving as though they believe it.
Corporate capital read the same week and priced restraint. Regis declined to counter Genesis on Vault and will take a break fee of about A$50.7M rather than stretch past its return thresholds, leaving Genesis the agreed scheme at A$5.6B. Alcoa structured US$4.7B for South32's bauxite, alumina and aluminium assets with a contingent value right of up to US$750M, paying part of the price only if index prices cooperate. Tintina's C$91.0M came from Sumitomo and a founding family rather than a syndicate book, which is a strategic holder taking a seat rather than a financing being cleared. Altius raised C$181.5M four days after saying the Great Bay acquisition would run off existing liquidity, and the sequence carries the disclosure.
The prices decline to corroborate the urgency. Antimony fell 5.01% on the month, NdPr oxide 2.03% and tungsten 1.93%, the same basket the policy machinery is built around, while iron ore ran from near US$112 to below US$97 as Simandou ramped faster than expected. Where the money actually compounded was in delivery, with Macmahon up 201% and NRW up 123% over twelve months on the back of work that has to be done regardless of who owns the ounces. Arafura's A$361.5M says the same thing from the other side. This cycle pays the operator who can put steel in the ground while the register is still being argued over.
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| Arafura Rare Earths (ARU) completes its share purchase plan, taking the total raised to A$361.5M (~US$252.3M) gross. |
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| The plan drew valid applications of about A$11.6M, with 44,399,883 shares issued at A$0.26 and quotation applied for. The A$361.5M total is the combined proceeds of the share purchase plan and the concurrent placement, before costs. |
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| Altius Minerals (ALS) announces a C$181.5M (~US$129.3M) bought deal public offering. |
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| The offering covers 3,000,000 common shares, with the company citing liquidity and balance sheet support as the purpose. It lands four days after the US$168M Great Bay Renewables acquisition, which Altius said would be funded from existing liquidity, including partial use of credit facilities being adjusted and expanded to reflect the Lithium Royalty Corp integration. |
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| Tintina Mines (TTS) closes a C$91.0M (~US$64.8M) subscription receipt financing for the Domeyko Sulfuros project. |
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| The private placement is anchored by Sumitomo Corporation and the Gignac family rather than a broker syndicate. Proceeds advance the Chilean copper-gold project toward a final investment decision. |
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| Cobre (CBE) completes the A$72.4M first tranche of its A$90.0M (~US$62.8M) placement. |
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| Tranche 1 issued 241,604,760 shares at A$0.30, with the second tranche subject to shareholder approval at an EGM in late August or early September and open only to the board and major shareholders Tribeca Investment Partners and Strata Investment Holdings. Funds go to lifting Cobre's project-level ownership of Sierra Atacama (A$17M), debt repayment (A$26M), a plant upgrade to 1,500t per month and other development (A$29M), exploration at Sierra Atacama and regionally (A$24M), the Botswana projects (A$4M) and corporate costs (A$20M). Total uses of A$120M exceed the raise, with the balance funded from existing cash. |
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| Alcoa (AA) agrees to acquire the bauxite, alumina and aluminium assets of South32 (S32) at an implied enterprise value of US$4.7B. |
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| Consideration comprises US$3.1B cash, about 17.0 million newly issued Alcoa shares, US$0.6B of assumed net debt largely in finance leases, and a contingent value right of up to US$750M over four years from 1 July 2026, earned when annual average index prices clear agreed strike prices. A locked-box mechanism effective 1 April 2026 offsets cash consideration at close, and a 5% ticking fee on the cash component adds an estimated US$80M to US$100M. Close is targeted for the first half of 2027, subject to South32 shareholder and regulatory approvals, with no diligence or financing conditions. |
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| Genesis Minerals (GMD) and Vault Minerals (VAU) agree a merger by scheme of arrangement valuing Vault at A$5.6B (~US$3.9B). |
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| Vault shareholders receive 0.7629 Genesis shares plus A$0.475 cash per share, an implied A$5.274 per share and a 15.7% premium to Vault's close, leaving pro forma ownership at 59.8% Genesis and 40.2% Vault. Genesis claims about A$2.0B in post-tax undiscounted synergies, roughly A$1.5B of that over ten years, on the basis of a 35km separation at Leonora and the Bardoc to Mount Monger proximity. The Vault board recommends the scheme unanimously absent a superior proposal and subject to the independent expert, with the combined group carrying about A$12.6B in pro forma market capitalisation, 600koz to 700koz of annual production and A$611M net cash. |
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| Mogotes Metals (MOG) announces a US$15.0M (C$21.3M) strategic investment by Rio Tinto and a proposed alliance over Filo Sur. |
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| The binding term sheet places 30,387,857 units at C$0.70, each carrying one share and one-half warrant, with 15,193,929 whole warrants exercisable at C$1.00 for 18 months and worth a further C$15.2M if taken up. Rio Tinto Exploration Canada takes an initial 5% interest, and on closing secures 15 months of exclusivity over the Vicuna district project, extendable by six months, a right to match third-party proposals and a top-up right to 9.99% partially diluted, subject to TSXV approval and definitive documentation. CD Capital Fund IV separately exercised subscription rights on 14 July for up to 31,000,000 shares at C$15.19M, lifting it to 19.9% and putting a second strategic holder on the register inside a day. |
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Aquitaine Metals
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| 24m at 16.54 g/t Au from 47.5m |
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| Limousin (France) |
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| The standout of the week, bonanza-grade gold held over 24m near surface rather than a single narrow sliver. At this size and grade, an intercept like this resets a micro-cap register rather than nudging it. |
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American Eagle Gold (AE : TSXV)
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| 801m at 0.49% CuEq from 33m |
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| NAK (British Columbia, Canada) |
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| The widest hole of the week, a district-scale copper-gold envelope that reframes the porphyry rather than tweaking a resource. At a $215M cap the re-rate leverage is thinner than the juniors here, but 801m of continuity underwrites a maiden resource. Copper-equivalent grade. |
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Sitka Gold (SIG : TSXV)
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| 348m at 1.12 g/t Au from 156m |
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| RC (Yukon, Canada) |
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| A long gold hit at a real grade, not a low-grade halo padding the interval. At a $419M cap this is more re-rate than re-discovery, but width at this grade builds ounces fast. |
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Auro Metals (AURO : TSXV)
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| 625.1m at 0.64 g/t Au from 81.4m |
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| Santa Barbara (Ecuador) |
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| Enormous width from near surface, the kind of district-scale gold envelope that carries a story on continuity rather than grade. At a $120M cap the leverage stays live if the zone holds along strike. |
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Advance Metals (AVM : ASX)
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| 15.6m at 309 g/t Ag from 24m |
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| Gavilanes (Mexico) |
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| The cleanest high-grade silver of the week, single-metal over real width and near surface. At a $32M cap this is the grade-plus-thickness that drives a resource re-rate. |
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| Week-on-Week |
Price |
% |
| Gold |
US$4,017/oz |
-2.52% |
| Silver |
US$56.00/oz |
-6.67% |
| Platinum |
US$1,590/oz |
-2.51% |
| Palladium |
US$1,250/oz |
-1.81% |
| Copper |
US$13,892/t |
-0.07% |
| Nickel |
US$17,005/t |
+2.22% |
| Zinc |
US$3,526/t |
-2.37% |
| Lead |
US$1,876/t |
-0.57% |
| WTI Crude |
US$82.49/bbl |
+11.99% |
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| Month-on-Month |
Price |
% |
| Tin (LME)* |
US$50,375.00/t |
-3.64% |
| Lithium Carbonate (China)* |
US$14,470.87/t |
+4.29% |
| NdPr Oxide (FOB China)* |
US$90.05/kg |
-2.03% |
| Fluorspar (90%)* |
US$436.49/t |
-0.44% |
| Antimony* |
US$16.60/kg |
-5.01% |
| Niobium* |
US$31.02/kg |
-0.03% |
| Tungsten* |
US$159.51/kg |
-1.93% |
| Gallium* |
US$242.55/kg |
-0.14% |
| Germanium* |
US$3,120.82/kg |
+4.20% |
| Uranium (U3O8)* |
US$189.71/kg |
-0.88% |
*Sourced from Critical Minerals Platform (CMP). These prices are APAC volume-weighted averages from producers rather than traders, meaning they are heavily weighted towards Chinese prices for minerals where China dominates production. All other commodities show week-on-week change.
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This newsletter is for general information, education and entertainment. Kamoa Capital is not licensed and does not know your circumstances. Nothing here is financial, legal or tax advice. Seek professional advice and read any PDS before acting. We aim for accuracy but make no guarantees and accept no liability. Views are opinions only and may include forward-looking statements that may not occur.
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