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Independent Critical Minerals Intelligence
Independent pricing, supply chain analytics and strategic forecasts across 67 minerals and 93 markets. Built in Perth for mining companies, fund managers and government agencies.
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| Record-High Yangshan Premium Signals China's Deepening Copper Tightness |
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| Mysteel put China's Yangshan copper premium at a record US$119 a tonne on 22 July, up from US$45 at the start of 2026, with buyers paying up for imported metal through the consumption off-season. Its clean concentrate spot treatment charge index sat at minus US$141.50 a dry metric tonne on 17 July. Refined copper output fell month on month in June as eleven smelters went into maintenance. |
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| Mysteel |
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| US Estimates Federal Coal Could Power Nation for 600 Years |
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| A US Geological Survey report puts 4.2 billion short tons of reserves at active federal mines and another 356 billion short tons of resources under federally managed land, enough for 600 years at current use. Wyoming holds 87% of reported reserves at active federal mines. |
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| Mining.com |
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| Trump May Need to Allow Chinese Minerals as US Industry Struggles to Meet 2027 Deadline |
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| Trump's push to strip Chinese critical minerals from US defence supply chains by 1 January 2027 is faltering as domestic capacity lags. Federal rules would bar rare earths, magnets, tungsten, molybdenum and tantalum sourced from China, Russia, Iran and North Korea, yet Washington has routinely granted waivers because US supply cannot meet demand. |
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| Reuters |
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| Sundance Resources Awarded US$616M After Cameroon's Unlawful Iron Ore Project Grab |
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| An International Chamber of Commerce tribunal awarded Sundance about US$616 million after finding Cameroon unlawfully revoked its rights to the Mbalam-Nabeba iron ore deposit and handed the permit to another developer. The ruling caps a six-year fight and follows Sundance losing a separate case against the Republic of Congo in January. Cameroon must now pay, though Sundance has flagged it may need to pursue enforcement. |
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| Australian Financial Review |
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| Rio Tinto Pays Biggest Dividend in Four Years on Buoyant Metal Prices |
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| Rio Tinto will pay a half-year dividend of US$2.11 a share, its biggest interim payout in four years and 43% above last year, after tariffs and conflict in the Middle East lifted copper and aluminium prices. Half-year profit came in at US$6.6 billion, with analysts having expected US$2.04 a share. Iron ore contributed 43% of underlying earnings and copper 36%, with chief executive Simon Trott calling the result a step change. |
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| Australian Financial Review |
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| Codelco Rules Out Meeting Copper Goals as It Faces Tough Year |
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| Chairman Bernardo Fontaine said Codelco faces another difficult year and effectively ruled out returning to pre-pandemic output by the end of the decade. He pointed to years of weak production, rising costs and underperforming investments, and said the company lacks the capital to advance its whole portfolio alone, opening the door to more private partnerships. |
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| Mining.com |
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| Queensland Courts US Investors for $1 Trillion Critical Minerals Reserve |
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| Queensland is courting US investors to develop what the state pitches as a critical minerals endowment worth around $1 trillion, under the US-Australia Critical Minerals Framework. The government has been streamlining approvals and drawing US backing, including a US Export-Import Bank letter of interest of US$1.3 billion for the Esmeralda graphite-to-anode project near Townsville. |
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| The Australian |
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THEME: BLOCKED FROM CONTROL, CAPITAL BUYS A STAKE
The Takeover Failed and the Placement Closed the Same Day
Zijin Gold's C$5.5 billion purchase of Allied Gold died on the 29 July deadline, reportedly on Chinese regulatory approvals, and reappeared the same day as a US$295 million placement at C$32.55 for about 9.2%, with participation and top-up rights attached. The shape repeated down the size curve. Hancock Prospecting put A$7.95 million into G50 for roughly 5.4%. Golden Crane took about 15% of Saturn Metals with A$48.6 million of a A$100.0 million placement. Barrick closed C$20.9 million into Kingfisher for 9.9%, with 80% of it ringfenced for HWY 37.
Where control actually moved, it moved on unusual terms. Evolution Mining paid A$213.0 million in scrip for Carnaby Resources at a 60.4% premium, and what it bought is roughly 10,000 tonnes a year of copper through latent mill capacity at Ernest Henry, brownfield tonnes secured while China's Yangshan import premium set a record US$119 a tonne on 22 July. A2MP, already holding 55.56% of Canyon Resources, offered A$0.05 for the rest at a 42.5% discount to the last close and told minorities the Minim Martap feasibility case no longer holds. American Tungsten & Antimony bought a permitted Nevada refinery and an Arizona mine.
Policy is setting the terms in every one of these. Washington's 1 January 2027 ban on Chinese rare earths, magnets, tungsten, molybdenum and tantalum is running ahead of domestic capacity, waivers keep issuing, and a new executive order makes them harder to get. Queensland is pitching its critical minerals endowment straight at US investors under the bilateral framework, with the US Export-Import Bank already carrying a US$1.3 billion letter of interest on Esmeralda. Codelco says it cannot fund its own portfolio and will take private partners. Tungsten fell 5.68% on the month and antimony 5.01%, and the money still found the assets.
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| Allied Gold (AAUC) secures a US$295.0M (~C$417M) strategic investment from Zijin Gold after terminating their arrangement agreement. |
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| Zijin Gold subscribes for approximately 12.8 million shares at C$32.55 on a non-brokered private placement basis, priced at the 30-day volume weighted average trading price to 27 July and a premium to the market. The investment leaves Zijin Gold holding about 9.2% of Allied, with participation and top-up rights to maintain that pro rata interest. The arrangement agreement was terminated the same day after both parties concluded the conditions could not be met by the 29 July outside date. |
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| Saturn Metals (STN) receives firm commitments for a A$100.0M (~US$69.7M) two-tranche placement at A$0.40 per share to advance the Apollo Hill Gold Project. |
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| The raise issues about 250 million shares at an 11.1% discount to the 24 July close of A$0.45. New cornerstone investor Golden Crane Holdings committed roughly A$48.6M for 121.5 million shares and moves to about 15% of the register, while Saturn's four largest shareholders took a combined A$42.5M. Tranche one of about 63.8 million shares uses existing placement capacity, with the remaining 186.2 million shares subject to shareholder approval at a meeting expected in mid-September, alongside a non-underwritten share purchase plan targeting a further A$5.0M. |
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| G50 Corp (G50) receives firm commitments for a A$26.25M (~US$18.3M) single tranche institutional placement at A$0.595 per new share. |
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| The issue price is a 9.8% discount to the 24 July close of A$0.66 and a 3.8% discount to the 30-day VWAP of A$0.618, with about 44.1 million new shares issued under the company's full placement capacity and the balance under Listing Rule 7.1A. Hancock Prospecting committed A$7.95M and comes on as cornerstone investor with roughly 5.4% of issued capital on completion. Proceeds accelerate drilling, geological studies, gallium test work and early permitting across the Golconda gold-silver-gallium project in Arizona and the White Caps gold project in Nevada. |
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| Kingfisher Metals (KFR) closes the C$20.9M (~US$14.9M) strategic placement from Barrick Mining. |
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| Barrick subscribed for 15,470,934 units at C$1.35, each carrying one share and half a warrant exercisable at C$1.70 for two years, taking it to 9.9% undiluted and 14.1% partially diluted. At least 80% of proceeds are committed to the HWY 37 project in British Columbia, with the balance to working capital. The securities carry a hold period expiring 29 November 2026, and the investor rights agreement set out on 21 July stands unchanged. |
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| Evolution Mining (EVN) agrees to acquire 100% of Carnaby Resources (CNB) by scheme of arrangement for approximately A$213.0M (~US$148.5M) in scrip. |
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| Carnaby holders receive 0.0682 Evolution shares for each share held, implying A$0.77 per share and a 60.4% premium to the last close, with Evolution issuing 20,780,002 new shares and Carnaby holders ending on about 0.9% of the enlarged group. The deal brings the Greater Duchess copper-gold project in the Cloncurry district into Evolution's portfolio, where roughly 10,000 tonnes a year of additional copper could run through latent mill capacity at Ernest Henry. Carnaby's existing tolling and offtake agreements with Glencore are terminated as a condition of the scheme, and completion is expected in mid-November subject to Carnaby shareholder, ACCC and court approvals. |
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| A2MP Investments lodges an off-market cash takeover bid for the shares in Canyon Resources (CAY) it does not already own, at A$0.05 per share, implying an equity value of about A$103M (~US$71.8M). |
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| A2MP already holds 55.56% and lodged its bidder's statement with ASIC on 29 July, describing the offer as fully funded and free of financing or due diligence conditions, while Canyon characterises the bid as unsolicited and conditional. The bidder argues a lower bauxite premium, higher freight, levies and logistics capital have undermined the September 2025 definitive feasibility study on the Minim Martap bauxite project in Cameroon, leaving Canyon's capital structure short of what development requires. The A$0.05 price is a 42.5% discount to the 28 July close of A$0.087, and the Canyon board has told holders to take no action pending a target's statement and an independent expert opinion on whether the offer is fair and reasonable. |
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| American Tungsten & Antimony (AT4) executes a share sale and purchase agreement to acquire 100% of the Del Sol Refinery in Nevada and the White Spar Antimony Mine in Arizona, with no consideration disclosed. |
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| Consideration is a combination of cash and stock, and the company did not put a total on the transaction in its announcement. Del Sol is a constructed and permitted hydrometallurgical antimony flake refinery licensed to process up to 18,500 tons of feed a year, with White Spar and the company's Antimony Canyon project in Utah intended as initial feedstock for antimony metal flake and a pathway to military specification product. Management has flagged expansion into tungsten APT production off the existing hydrometallurgical circuit. |
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NGEx Minerals (NGEX : TSX)
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| 546.3m at 1.19% CuEq from 446m |
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| Lunahuasi (Argentina) |
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Power Minerals (PNN : ASX)
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| 116m at 4.78% TREO from 0m |
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| Morro Do Ferro (Brazil) |
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Iltani Resources (ILT : ASX)
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| 28m at 317 g/t AgEq from 38m |
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| Herberton (Queensland, Australia) |
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| Week-on-Week |
Price |
% |
| Gold |
US$4,043/oz |
-0.25% |
| Silver |
US$58.00/oz |
0.00% |
| Platinum |
US$1,640/oz |
+3.14% |
| Palladium |
US$1,280/oz |
+2.81% |
| Copper |
US$14,468/t |
+2.19% |
| Nickel |
US$17,216/t |
-0.42% |
| Zinc |
US$3,638/t |
+1.42% |
| Lead |
US$1,870/t |
-0.31% |
| WTI Crude |
US$86.80/bbl |
+2.64% |
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| Month-on-Month |
Price |
% |
| Tin (LME)* |
US$52,878.00/t |
+1.15% |
| Lithium Carbonate (China)* |
US$17,382.86/t |
— |
| NdPr Oxide (FOB China)* |
US$90.05/kg |
-2.03% |
| Fluorspar (90%)* |
US$436.49/t |
-0.44% |
| Antimony* |
US$16.60/kg |
-5.01% |
| Niobium* |
US$32.58/kg |
+5.01% |
| Tungsten* |
US$153.41/kg |
-5.68% |
| Gallium* |
US$242.55/kg |
-0.14% |
| Germanium* |
US$3,120.82/kg |
+4.20% |
| Uranium (U3O8)* |
US$188.61/kg |
-0.29% |
*Sourced from Critical Minerals Platform (CMP). These prices are APAC volume-weighted averages from producers rather than traders, meaning they are heavily weighted towards Chinese prices for minerals where China dominates production. All other commodities show week-on-week change.
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This newsletter is for general information, education and entertainment. Kamoa Capital is not licensed and does not know your circumstances. Nothing here is financial, legal or tax advice. Seek professional advice and read any PDS before acting. We aim for accuracy but make no guarantees and accept no liability. Views are opinions only and may include forward-looking statements that may not occur.
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