Sunday Wrap - 26 Apr 2026

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ASX: TM1

Australia's Next Major PGM Discovery

Terra Metals' Dante Project hosts large-scale Bushveld-style copper-PGE sulfide reefs just 15km from BHP's $1.7Bn Nebo-Babel development. Dante is rapidly emerging as Australia's next major PGM system.

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Mining Investors Jittery About Politics in Peru as Vote Count Drags On

Political uncertainty in Peru is unnerving mining investors as the presidential election count drags on, with more than $10.3 billion in planned mining investment sitting at exploration or early engineering stages. Analysts warn the prolonged uncertainty is eroding confidence in one of the world's most consequential copper and gold producing nations.

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ASX Concentration Grows as Miners Dominate Top Ten Stocks

Seven of the ten largest stocks on the Australian sharemarket are now miners or banks, a concentration analysts say raises equity risk for broad ASX investors. Mining company performance is increasingly setting index-level returns, amplifying the sector's structural influence over Australian capital markets.

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How China Became a Quiet Winner of Trump's Iran War, Via Rio Tinto

AFR's Chanticleer column argues that Rio Tinto's latest quarterly result points to China as an unintended beneficiary of US-Iran conflict dynamics, with Rio appearing largely undisturbed by Middle East tensions. The analysis frames geopolitical disruption as a force reshaping demand flows for key mining commodities.

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Aluminum Faces 'Black Swan' Supply Shock, Mercuria Says

Mercuria's head of metals research described the aluminum market disruption as the largest single supply shock a base metals market has suffered in the post-2000 era, as the Middle East war hits a region producing roughly 9% of global annual smelting capacity. Mercuria projects a deficit of approximately 2 million tonnes by year-end, with US physical premiums already hitting a record $2,521.50 per tonne.

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Oil Market 'Mispricing' Worst Supply Shock Ever, Analysts Warn

Traders and analysts at the FT Commodities Global Summit warned that oil markets are underestimating the scale of supply disruption from the Iran war's effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, with executives estimating roughly 1 billion barrels of supply already lost. Brent retreated to around $95 per barrel after briefly nearing $120, yet Trafigura, Gunvor and Shore Capital warn inventories could be drained within weeks if disruptions persist.

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Russia Weighs Windfall Levy on Mining Companies Amid Ukraine War Spending

Russia's Finance Ministry is weighing a new windfall levy on mining companies including Polyus and Nornickel as rising military spending widens the budget deficit, with the proposed rate potentially reaching 20%, double the 10% levy applied in 2023. No final decision has been made, with detailed discussions expected to begin in the second half of 2026 as part of the new budget cycle.

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US Trade Chief Says Allies Must Pay a National Security Premium for Critical Minerals

US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer told American allies they must accept higher costs for critical minerals sourced outside China, arguing that cost efficiency concerns are precisely what created Western dependence on Beijing. Greer is drafting specific price floor proposals to share with trading partners, with the EU and US reportedly nearing a coordination agreement on mining supply chains.

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Ghana Directs Newmont, AngloGold, and Zijin to Shift Mining Operations to Local Firms by December

Ghana's mining regulator has ordered Newmont, AngloGold and Zijin to transfer their mining operations to local contract firms by December, pushing multinationals into a more limited oversight role as part of the country's broader campaign to increase local economic participation in the gold sector. The directive reshapes the operating model for some of the world's largest gold producers in one of Africa's most important mining jurisdictions.

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Lithium Market to Enter Deficit Until 2035, Says Canaccord

The global lithium market is set to enter a near-decade-long deficit as a lack of mine investment weighs on supply of the EV battery metal, according to Canaccord Genuity. Analysts expect a material deficit starting in 2026 that could persist until 2035, requiring significant investment in new supply to meet long-term demand.

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Anglo American Draws Three Bidders for Coal Sale

Anglo American has at least three potential buyers for its Australian steelmaking coal business after a $3.8 billion sale to Peabody Energy collapsed following a mine fire, with Stanmore Resources, Mitsubishi Corp and PT Buma Internasional circling the Queensland assets. Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley are running the sale process, with a deal potentially announced in coming months.

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Gold Struggles to Stay a Safe Haven Amid Central Bank, ETF Sell-Offs

Gold has declined 8.1% since the outbreak of the US-Iran war to US$4,806 per ounce, recovering from an earlier peak drawdown of nearly 15%, as both central banks and retail-focused ETFs liquidate bullion holdings. The AFR argues the metal is failing to fulfil its conventional safe-haven function under current market conditions.

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Chinese Copper Output Hits Record on Tailwind From Sulfuric Acid

Chinese copper smelters produced a record 1.33 million tonnes of refined metal in March, the highest in data going back to 1990, as surging prices for byproduct sulfuric acid boosted smelter profitability and encouraged higher output. First-quarter output rose 9.3% year-on-year to 3.785 million tonnes, though production is expected to ease from April due to seasonal maintenance.

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Goldman Sachs Maintains 2026 Copper Price, Surplus Forecasts

Goldman Sachs held its 2026 average copper price forecast at US$12,650 per tonne despite predicting a 490,000-tonne surplus, flagging that sulfuric acid disruptions could curtail up to 125,000 tonnes of DRC production and put 200,000 tonnes of Chilean SX-EW output at risk. Copper traded above US$13,200 per tonne while commodity trader Traxys projects prices could reach US$15,000 per tonne within 24 to 36 months.