Sunday Wrap - 5 Apr 2026

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Chile Copper Output at Nine-Year Low Adds to Supply Concerns

Chile recorded its lowest monthly copper output in nearly nine years in February, with production totalling 378,554 metric tonnes, down 8.5% from January and 4.8% year-on-year. The decline reflects structural headwinds including falling ore grades and underperformance at key mines, with no single disruption event responsible. Chile produces roughly a quarter of the world's mined copper, making the sustained slide a key factor in global supply tightness.

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What's the Outlook for Gold- and Silver-Mining Stocks in 2026?

Gold and silver have both sold off sharply following the outbreak of the Iran conflict, defying their traditional safe-haven reputation as equities, industrial metals and bonds declined in tandem. Investment demand for gold grew by nearly 990 tonnes in 2025, but those positions are now unwinding as the conflict unfolds. Analysts see the near-term outlook as lower before higher, with sustained dips potentially representing a long-term entry point for quality precious metals miners.

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Ivanhoe Mines Announces Updated, Independent Study Results for the Kamoa-Kakula Copper Complex

Ivanhoe Mines has released an updated independent technical study for the Kamoa-Kakula Copper Complex in the DRC, revising 2026 production guidance down to 290,000 to 330,000 tonnes of copper anode as the near-term mine plan refocuses on infrastructure development. The Indicated Mineral Resource stands at 1.3 billion tonnes at 2.65% copper, underpinning a multi-decade mine life with the company targeting production above 500,000 tonnes per annum from 2028 at a cash cost below $2.00 per pound.

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Congo Deepens China Mining Ties Amid US Rivalry

The Democratic Republic of Congo has signed an agreement with China to deepen cooperation in its mining sector, covering geological data sharing, investment protection and the promotion of local processing. The deal comes as the United States pursues a competing minerals partnership with Kinshasa, intensifying great-power competition over Congo's vast reserves of cobalt, copper and lithium. Chinese companies including CMOC, Zijin and Huayou already dominate the DRC's mining industry, and Beijing remains the country's largest bilateral creditor.

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WA's Most Labour-Intensive Iron Ore Mines Could Be Just 10 Days Away from Diesel Supply Catastrophe

Western Australia's most labour-intensive iron ore mines could face catastrophic diesel shortages within as few as 10 days, with the Middle East conflict disrupting global fuel supply chains and the Association of Mining and Exploration Companies reporting some smaller miners holding only five days of supply on site. Premier Roger Cook convened an emergency fuel security roundtable with industry to coordinate supply and prioritise diesel imports through WA ports. The crisis has disproportionately affected junior and mid-tier operators relying on independent distributors rather than direct supply contracts.

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Vale Targets India as China's Star Fades

Brazil's Vale is targeting a 50% increase in iron ore sales to India this year to approximately 15 million tonnes, positioning the country as its primary growth market as Chinese steel output plateaus at roughly one billion tonnes annually. The company signed a memorandum of understanding with Adani Ports and state-run NMDC in February to jointly develop a blending facility, with further partnerships under consideration. Vale's Novo Carajas expansion, which will add 20 million tonnes of annual capacity and is now 80% complete, is scheduled to begin operations in late 2026.

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Energy Giants Warn Labor: Don't Tax Us Into a Power Crunch or Impact Will Be Worse Than Current Petrol, Diesel Shock

Australia's major energy producers have warned the Albanese government that imposing new resource taxes during the current fuel crisis risks triggering a power crunch worse than the shock already unfolding from the Iran conflict. The warnings come as proposals for a gas export tax gain political traction, with producers and the International Energy Agency cautioning that abrupt changes to Australia's tax regime would undermine investment and further constrain domestic supply. Australia is already grappling with one of its worst energy disruptions in decades, with rural and remote areas reporting critical diesel shortages.

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DRC Cancels 79-Block Lithium Exploration Permit Held by AVZ Minerals

The DRC's Mining Registry cancelled AVZ Minerals' 79-block exploration permit PR 4029 in March 2026, citing non-payment of surface rights fees under the DRC Mining Code, adding another setback for the Australian miner already locked in international arbitration over the broader Manono lithium project. The cancellation comes as AVZ pursues active proceedings against the Congolese government at the ICSID and ICC, following the 2023 revocation of its main development permit and its reassignment to a joint venture involving China's Zijin Mining. The Manono deposit is considered one of the world's largest hard-rock lithium resources.

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Donald Trump's Critical Minerals Tsar Joshua Kroon Assures Australian Mining Bosses US Alliance Remains Strong

Trump administration critical minerals official Joshua Kroon told Australia's mining sector at the Minerals Council of Australia's Minerals Week that critical minerals will become one of the central pillars of the US-Australia alliance, with both nations working to reduce dependence on Chinese supply. Kroon highlighted progress under the bilateral critical minerals framework, including US Export-Import Bank Letters of Interest supporting Australian projects such as Alcoa's gallium recovery operation in Western Australia. Both governments have committed to deploying A$1.5 billion into priority critical minerals projects within six months under the partnership.

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World Gold Council Says Australian Investors Should Buy Bullion's Price Dip Despite RBA Rate Rises

The World Gold Council has urged Australian investors to consider buying gold on the current price dip, presenting research showing the metal has delivered positive 12-month forward returns across all RBA rate regimes since 2010. The report found gold outperformed Australian equities in every rate cycle over that period, with no evidence that rising rates impair performance in AUD terms. The Council's case for a strategic allocation is strengthened by Australia's heightened geopolitical and energy risk exposure and the RBA's decision to resume tightening in February 2026.

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Iran War Chokes Off Helium Supplies in Threat to Chipmakers and Healthcare

The Iran conflict has disrupted global helium supplies, with Iranian strikes on Qatari LNG infrastructure cutting output from a country that supplies roughly a third of the world's total. The disruption threatens chipmakers and healthcare providers, as helium is an essential input for semiconductor manufacturing and for cooling the superconducting magnets inside MRI scanners. Air Liquide declared force majeure on some orders as spot prices surged, with suppliers warning of tightening availability for industries that cannot quickly switch to alternative sources.

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Here's What to Expect for Gold and Silver Mining Stocks as the Iran Conflict Continues

Gold and silver mining stocks face continued near-term volatility as the Iran conflict remains unresolved, with speculative money at risk of rotating out of precious metals until a ceasefire or resolution emerges. The Motley Fool notes that the optimal entry point may not yet have arrived given ongoing uncertainty, though JPMorgan holds a year-end gold price target of $6,300 per ounce and the long-term structural case for both metals remains intact. Silver in particular retains upside potential given that industrial demand accounted for around 59% of total consumption in 2025.

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South Africa Opens First Underground Gold Mine in 15 Years

West Wits Mining has opened the Qala Shallows underground gold mine west of Johannesburg, South Africa's first new underground gold mine in 15 years, with a first gold pour targeted for March 2026. The operation is projected to produce approximately 70,000 ounces of gold per year over a 12-year mine life at a total development cost of approximately $44 million. Record gold prices have underpinned project economics, with West Wits CEO Rudi Deysel describing the mine as proof that new underground gold projects can still be developed in the Witwatersrand Basin with rigorous planning and disciplined execution.

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Japan and the U.S. Agree to Team Up on Seabed Mining

Japan and the United States have signed a non-binding memorandum of cooperation to share research and insights on deep-sea mining, in an extraordinary public show of allied support for US efforts to advance the industry outside established multilateral frameworks. The deal was signed alongside other economic partnership agreements following a Trump-Takaichi summit and circulated at a meeting of the International Seabed Authority. Some 40 nations have called for a moratorium on seabed mining, and experts warn the pact could signal a wider geopolitical fracture in the decades-long effort to reach global consensus on ocean floor governance.

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Diesel Shortage Worries Ricochet Across the Country's Remote Mines

Australia's remote mines and isolated communities are facing acute diesel shortages as the Iran conflict disrupts global oil supply chains and the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed. Some junior and mid-tier mining companies have been operating on as little as five days of fuel supply, with independent distributors delivering only 30 to 40 percent of normal volumes. The federal government has released emergency reserves and halved the fuel excise, but operators in remote areas report insufficient relief to restore normal operations.

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Rio Tinto Demands Trump Tariff Refund

Rio Tinto has filed legal proceedings in the US Court of International Trade seeking a refund of tariffs paid following the Supreme Court's February ruling that struck down President Trump's IEEPA tariffs as exceeding presidential authority. The lawsuit is estimated to initially target recovery of approximately US$10 million, while Rio Tinto's wider tariff payments for 2025 were reported at close to US$1 billion. The legal action comes as the miner simultaneously navigates the political landscape to advance its Resolution Copper project in Arizona.

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Rio Tinto Resumes Operations at Three Mines After Cyclones, Maintains 2026 Shipments Guidance

Rio Tinto has resumed ship loading at three of its four Pilbara iron ore port terminals following the passage of Tropical Cyclone Narelle, which caused port closures from 24 March. Combined with Tropical Cyclone Mitchell in February, the weather events are estimated to have impacted iron ore shipments by approximately 8 million tonnes, with the miner identifying a pathway to recover around half of those losses. Rio maintained its 2026 Pilbara iron ore shipment guidance unchanged at 323 to 338 million tonnes.

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Glencore, Canada Near Deal to Save Quebec Copper Facility

Canada and Quebec are working to save Glencore's Horne copper smelter in Rouyn-Noranda, the country's only copper smelter, after the Swiss miner suspended plans to invest nearly C$1 billion in its Quebec operations following a dispute over new arsenic emissions requirements. Quebec has proposed legislative amendments to delay a new arsenic cap of 15 nanograms per cubic metre until 2029, while the federal government is considering a financial aid package of approximately C$150 million for pollution-control upgrades. The Horne smelter is one of very few facilities in North America capable of processing copper concentrate and electronic scrap, with approximately 3,200 direct and indirect jobs at risk.