The Drill Down
Friday 1 May 2026 · Part 2
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Presented By
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ASX: KAO
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Namibia's Copper Belt.
Ready to Drill.
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69.6%
Peak Cu Grade
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40km
Mineralised Trend
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89%
Cu Recovery
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Two fully permitted copper projects in Namibia, an emerging exploration jurisdiction on the radar of global miners. The Chalkos Project carries peak surface grades of 69.6% Cu and 2,030 g/t Ag across a 40km mineralised trend. Drilling commences soon.
Discover Kaoko
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Lead Insight
Nickel Batteries Could Further Lose Spark as Indonesian Production Costs Surge
Indonesia's HPAL producers are facing sharply higher sulphur costs driven by Middle East supply disruptions, squeezing margins and threatening the cost competitiveness of nickel-based battery chemistry against LFP. The pressure compounds an already oversupplied market forecast to sit at a 261,000-tonne surplus in 2026, with Huayou Cobalt's 50% Indonesian production cut from May 1 a direct consequence. Morgan Stanley analysts warn sustained sulphur cost inflation could accelerate the battery sector's shift away from nickel-rich NMC, a trend already visible in China where LFP took roughly two-thirds of EV battery sales in 2025.
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Our Take
The sulphur cost surge is a geopolitical spillover hitting nickel at its most vulnerable point. A market already drowning in surplus now faces a structural chemistry shift that could permanently reduce the demand ceiling. For junior nickel explorers outside Indonesia, the structural dynamics continue to present headwinds particularly for attracting capital.
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Commodity Prices
Precious Metals (USD/toz)
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Gold
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$4,611
-0.25%
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Silver
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$74
+0.26%
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Platinum
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$1,979
-0.30%
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Palladium
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$1,527
+0.30%
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Base Metals & Commodities
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Copper USD/lb
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$6.00
-0.44%
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Nickel USD/lb
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$8.78
+0.57%
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Zinc USD/lb
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$1.53
+0.93%
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Lead USD/lb
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$0.88
+0.19%
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WTI Crude USD/bbl
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$105.18
+0.10%
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Prices updated as of 1 May 2026, 3:48 pm AEST
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Market Movers
Winners & Losers | ASX Markets
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Hot Chili Limited
Unexplained strength on high volume. Hot Chili recently raised A$40 million to advance its Costa Fuego copper-gold project in Chile. Recent trading may reflect speculation around upcoming drilling results or progress on corporate partnership and funding deal for the project.
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Cobre Limited
No specific catalyst. Cobre is actively marketing following the close of its transformational acquisition of the Sierra Atacama copper project in Chile, backed by a A$60 million raise. The ASX has few emerging copper developers of this scale, supporting ongoing investor interest.
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Energy Transition Minerals Ltd.
No direct catalyst. ETM holds the 1 billion tonne-plus Kvanefjeld rare earth project in Greenland, currently facing exploration licence uncertainty. Peers including Critical Metals (CRML) have been attracting significant M&A and capital markets attention, lifting sentiment across Greenland-exposed names.
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Peninsula Energy Limited
Weakness likely following the quarterly update earlier this week, with production at the Lance uranium project in Wyoming continuing to face operational challenges. The soft performance reflects a broader theme across ASX-listed uranium producers, with BOE and LOT facing similar execution issues since restart.
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Cobalt Blue Holdings Ltd.
Giving back recent gains following a period of elevated media attention around the cobalt price recovery driven by DRC export restrictions. COB remains one of the very few pure-play cobalt names on the ASX and is approaching a final investment decision at its Kwinana cobalt refinery JV in Western Australia.
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Finder Energy Holdings Limited
Continued trading volatility following last week's capital raising and resumption from halt. Shares remain under pressure as placement participants and short-term traders manage their positions post-raise.
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Market data as of 1 May 2026, 4:10 PM AEST
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This Week's Poll
Which jurisdiction offers the best risk-adjusted exploration upside right now?
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This Week's Research
The US Federal Framework: Capital, Permitting, and the Race to Supply Chain Sovereignty
The US Federal Framework: Capital, Permitting, and the Race to Supply Chain Sovereignty is a 17-page institutional-grade research memo produced by Kamoa Capital.
It is a structured analytical framework built for investors, mining executives, and government counterparts who need to understand how the US federal critical minerals architecture actually works and where the commercial opportunities and risks concentrate.
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China's Chokehold on Global Mineral Refining
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China controls refining of 19 of the 20 strategic minerals tracked by the IEA. This 17-page intelligence report quantifies the chokehold, maps the US$500B–$1.4T investment gap, and identifies where Western capital can still compete. Built on IEA, S&P Global, BloombergNEF and proprietary Kamoa Capital analysis of 2,419 processing facilities across 113 countries.
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Today's Stories
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Mining.com
US Critical Mineral Inventory Plan Includes Buying China Metals
The US Export-Import Bank's proposed critical minerals stockpiling initiative would initially source materials from anywhere in the world, including China, to build strategic inventory buffers. The plan exposes the tension between Washington's supply-chain decoupling ambitions and the practical reality of Chinese dominance in critical mineral processing.
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Our Take
Buying Chinese-processed minerals to stockpile against Chinese supply risk is a contradiction that reveals how far the US is from genuine supply chain independence. For non-Chinese producers, this signals that the policy window for preferential offtake or financing support is real but the timeline is longer than the rhetoric suggests.
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Australian Mining
Core Lithium Strikes Glencore Deal to Boost Finniss Restart
Core Lithium has agreed to sell part of its lithium fines stockpile to Glencore, providing a near-term revenue pathway as the Australian miner works toward restarting the Finniss lithium operation in the Northern Territory. The deal is aimed at strengthening cash flow ahead of the planned restart.
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Our Take
Selling stockpile inventory to Glencore is a pragmatic cash flow move, but it also signals that Core Lithium needs to manage its balance sheet carefully through the restart cycle. For investors, the Glencore relationship is a credibility signal, though the lithium price environment remains the key variable.
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Australian Mining
Catalyst Resources Reports Average AISC of $2,901 per Ounce at Plutonic Gold Operations
Catalyst Resources' Plutonic Main, East, and Trident mines reached a production milestone at an average all-in sustaining cost of $2,901 per ounce, as the company expands its tenement package around the Plutonic gold operations in Western Australia. The company describes its surrounding tenement holdings as an 'almost contagious' growth opportunity underpinning further expansion.
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Our Take
An AISC of $2,901 per ounce is high by industry standards and leaves thin margins even at elevated gold prices, which means execution on the tenement expansion story needs to deliver grade or scale improvements quickly. Investors should press for a clear pathway to cost reduction alongside the growth narrative.
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Miami Herald
U.S. Delegation Heads to Caracas as Firms Eye Oil, Mining Revival
White House energy official Jarrod Agen travelled to Caracas on April 30 to finalise memoranda of understanding covering oil and key minerals, with Hunt Oil, Repsol, Eni, and Halliburton attending surrounding meetings. The visit is part of Washington's three-phase engagement plan following the January removal of Nicolas Maduro, though companies remain wary of a sector historically controlled by armed groups and military-linked networks.
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Our Take
Venezuela's resource base is genuinely significant, but the gap between signing MOUs and getting capital safely into the ground is enormous. The governance and security risks have not disappeared, they have just been temporarily overshadowed by geopolitical momentum.
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Kamoa Capital
kamoacap.com
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This newsletter is for general information, education & entertainment. Kamoa Capital is not licensed and does not know your circumstances. Nothing here is financial, legal or tax advice — seek professional advice and read any PDS before acting. We aim for accuracy but make no guarantees and accept no liability. Views are opinions only and may include forward-looking statements that may not occur.
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