The Drill Down
Monday 11 May 2026 · Part 1
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Presented By
ASX: TM1
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Australia's Next Major PGM Discovery
Terra Metals' Dante Project hosts large-scale Bushveld-style copper-PGE sulfide reefs just 15km from BHP's $1.7Bn Nebo-Babel development. With world-class polymetallic mineralisation from surface and strong metallurgical outcomes, Dante is rapidly emerging as Australia's next major PGM system.
Explore the Discovery
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Lead Insight
Freeport Delays Grasberg Full Restart to Early 2028
PT Freeport Indonesia has pushed the full restart of the Grasberg copper-gold complex to early 2028, citing additional logistics and ore handling work stemming from the September 2025 mudslide that killed seven workers and forced force majeure on shipments. The mine is running at 40-50% capacity and copper production for 2026 is now expected at 700,000 lb, down from a 1 billion lb target. Grasberg accounted for approximately 3% of global copper supply at the time of the incident.
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Our Take
Three percent of global copper supply, running at half capacity until 2028. That gap does not close quietly. The market is already pricing in a structural shortfall, and Grasberg's extended downtime just made that calculation worse.
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Commodity Prices
Precious Metals (USD/toz)
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Gold
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$4,715
+0.62%
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Silver
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$80
+2.43%
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Platinum
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$2,055
+1.13%
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Palladium
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$1,494
+0.62%
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Base Metals & Commodities
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Copper USD/lb
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$6.29
+2.61%
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Nickel USD/lb
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$8.57
-0.94%
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Zinc USD/lb
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$1.56
+0.24%
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Lead USD/lb
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$0.90
-0.08%
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WTI Crude USD/bbl
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$98.46
+3.19%
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Prices updated as of 11 May 2026, 8:03 am AEST
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Market Movers
Winners & Losers — Canadian Marketss
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Highland Critical Minerals Corp.
CIRO requested comment on unusual market activity. Management confirmed no material change in operations to explain the surge. The stock had fallen over 96% from its November 2025 peak of C$5.82 before recovering. No operational catalyst identified.
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San Lorenzo Gold Corp.
Holes 9 and 10 at the Arco de Oro target on the Salvadora property in Chile returned 102.3m at 1.33 g/t gold and 59m at 1.07 g/t gold from a 3.9km step-out, pointing to a substantially larger porphyry system than previously considered. Grades improved with depth and the hole ended in mineralisation. The stock hit an all-time high and has quintupled year to date.
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Vault Strategic Mining Corp.
Vault signed a definitive agreement to acquire 100% of the historical Mirage-Mariposa Tungsten Mine in California's Bishop Mining District and the North Tungsten Project in Nunavik, Quebec, both targeting tungsten and precious metals in a skarn environment.
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Rise Gold Corp.
The California Superior Court denied Rise Gold's Writ seeking vested mining rights at the Idaho-Maryland Mine, ruling the right was abandoned by no later than 1963 despite having vested in 1954. Rise will appeal and may file a Fifth Amendment takings claim, valuing the mineral estate at a minimum of US$400 million.
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SPC Nickel Corp.
SPC Nickel repriced its non-brokered private placement downward, cutting the common share unit price to C$0.05 and charity flow-through price to C$0.073, signalling the original March 2026 terms could not be met at current market prices.
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enCore Energy Corp.
CIRO halted enCore Energy via a single stock circuit breaker on 8 May, resuming within five minutes. The move reflects broader bearish uranium sector sentiment, with enCore finishing down approximately 9% for the week.
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Market data as of 8 May 2026, 8:03 am AEST
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This Week's Poll
Which battery metal are you most bullish on over the next 12 months?
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This Week's Research
Q3 FY26 ASX Producer Recap
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Twelve mid-tier ASX gold producers, one commodity environment and the spread between best and worst AISC is now wider than the gold price was 18 months ago. That dispersion is the story. Inside: the five Tier-1 calls, the bond market re-opening for lithium, the US$110/kg policy floor decoupling Lynas from China spot, and the Q4 catalyst calendar.
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Partner Spotlight
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The right shareholders don't find you. You find them.
Cashu Group delivers independent equity research and targeted investor marketing for ASX-listed resource companies. The coverage that builds conviction, and the reach to make it count.
Find Your Shareholders
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Today's Stories
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Reuters
Trump and Xi Set for Talks Spanning Iran, Nuclear, Trade and AI
Trump arrives in Beijing on Wednesday for his first trip to China since 2017, with talks scheduled Thursday and Friday covering Iran, Taiwan, AI and nuclear weapons as both leaders also weigh extending the existing critical minerals deal between the two countries. A US official confirmed the rare earths agreement remains in effect ahead of the summit. It is the first face-to-face meeting between the two leaders in more than six months.
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Our Take
A critical minerals deal extension is the headline that matters for our coverage. Whether it holds comes down to whether Beijing sees more value in leverage than cooperation. Watch the communique language closely.
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Financial Times
Canadian Miner Sherritt Pulls Out of Cuba on Trump Sanctions Fears
Sherritt International suspended all Cuba joint venture operations effective immediately on 7 May, ending a 32-year presence after Trump's 1 May executive order introduced secondary sanctions on foreign financial institutions dealing with blocked Cuban entities. Three directors resigned as shares fell 42% on the day. The exit deprives Cuba of its largest foreign mining partner and an estimated 10-15% of its independent electricity generation.
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Our Take
Secondary sanctions are a qualitatively different tool to a trade embargo. Sherritt held on for decades under conventional pressure. It took less than a week of secondary sanctions threats to end a 32-year operation.
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Ecofin Agency
Ivanhoe Raises 2026 DRC Copper Exploration Budget to $86 Million
Ivanhoe Mines has lifted its 2026 Western Forelands exploration budget to $86 million from $50 million, funding the largest ever campaign at the DRC project with over 80,000m of diamond core and 16,000m of RC drilling targeting the Makoko district. Makoko holds 8.38 million tonnes of inferred copper resources, ranking it the world's fifth-largest copper discovery, with a resource update expected in Q3 2026.
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Our Take
A 72% budget increase mid-year signals Ivanhoe is seeing something compelling in the Makoko data. With Kamoa-Kakula already producing next door, a second district-scale copper system in the same country is not a stretch.
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Reuters
China Gold Production Slips in First Quarter, Consumption Rises
Total gold production in China fell 3.3% year-on-year to 136.23 tonnes, with domestic mine output dropping 7.1%, partially offset by overseas raw material processing. The production decline is unfolding alongside a surge in Chinese investor demand for gold bars and coins. The divergence between tightening supply and rising retail demand adds a structural layer to the broader gold price story.
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Our Take
The world's largest gold producer is mining less of it at the same time its retail investors are stacking bars and coins at record rates. At current price levels that dynamic is not a footnote, it is one of the more credible structural supports the gold market has right now.
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Kamoa Capital
kamoacap.com
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This newsletter is for general information, education & entertainment. Kamoa Capital is not licensed and does not know your circumstances. Nothing here is financial, legal or tax advice — seek professional advice and read any PDS before acting. We aim for accuracy but make no guarantees and accept no liability. Views are opinions only and may include forward-looking statements that may not occur.
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