The Drill Down
Tuesday 12 May 2026 · Part 1
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Presented By
ASX: TM1
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Australia's Next Major PGM Discovery
Terra Metals' Dante Project hosts large-scale Bushveld-style copper-PGE sulfide reefs just 15km from BHP's $1.7Bn Nebo-Babel development. With world-class polymetallic mineralisation from surface and strong metallurgical outcomes, Dante is rapidly emerging as Australia's next major PGM system.
Explore the Discovery
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Lead Insight
Coal Demand Surges as Middle East Conflict Disrupts Gas
Global coal imports are on course for their third-highest monthly total on record this May as Middle East conflict disrupts gas flows through the Strait of Hormuz, forcing Asia and Europe to switch to coal. Bulk carrier freight rates are running 50% above February levels despite the seasonal slowdown, with Indonesia-origin rates up 60-75% and Australian rates up 40-50%. South Korea, Thailand, Vietnam and Japan have all increased coal-fired generation, with shipments to Japan, South Korea and the EU up 27% year-on-year in April according to Bimco. China's demand has received an additional lift from coal-to-chemicals production as Gulf disruptions created a petrochemical shortfall.
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Our Take
Coal was supposed to be in terminal decline. What it actually needed to stage a comeback was a war disrupting LNG routes. The substitution ratio alone, two tonnes of coal per tonne of gas, tells you how fast the demand math moves when gas gets cut off.
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Commodity Prices
Precious Metals (USD/toz)
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Gold
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$4,736
+0.44%
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Silver
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$86
+7.18%
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Platinum
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$2,134
+3.85%
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Palladium
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$1,503
+0.62%
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Base Metals & Commodities
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Copper USD/lb
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$6.50
+3.36%
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Nickel USD/lb
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$8.73
+1.84%
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Zinc USD/lb
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$1.57
+0.74%
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Lead USD/lb
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$0.90
+0.59%
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WTI Crude USD/bbl
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$98.21
-0.17%
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Prices updated as of 12 May 2026, 8:03 am AEST
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Market Movers
Winners & Losers — Canadian Markets
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Blende Silver Corp.
No specific catalyst identified. The stock moved on its highest volume in over six months with no accompanying news release. Likely speculative interest in a thinly traded name.
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Vault Strategic Mining Corp.
Continuing to trade higher on last week's announcement of the Mirage-Mariposa Tungsten Mine acquisition in California's Bishop Mining District and the North Tungsten Project in Nunavik, Quebec. Both targets a skarn environment hosting tungsten and precious metals.
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Capitan Silver Corp.
First assay batch from the 60,000m 2026 drill program at Cruz de Plata, Mexico returned 934.6 g/t AgEq over 1.3m within a broader zone of 157.3 g/t AgEq over 20.0m, extending high-grade silver mineralisation 150m deeper than the previous best hole. A new zone was also identified east of the Penoles Fault with three rigs currently on site.
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Highland Critical Minerals Corp.
Full reversal of Friday's 80.3% gain, which was confirmed by management to have no operational catalyst behind it. The market has now unwound the speculative move in full.
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Geodrill Limited
Q1 2026 results showed revenue of US$48.4 million, down 1% year-on-year, with EBITDA of US$5.9 million under pressure from higher labour costs and currency movements. The company swung from net income of US$5.6 million in Q1 2025 to a near-breakeven net loss of US$0.1 million, driving the sell-off.
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American Pacific Mining Corp.
American Pacific commenced field reconnaissance and surface sampling at its Ziggurat Gold Project in Nevada, collecting 59 rock and 20 stream sediment samples across priority target areas prospective for Carlin-type gold in the Round Mountain Trend. Early-stage news against a backdrop of a more substantive 15,000m drill program already underway at Madison.
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Market data as of 12 May 2026, 9:09 AM AEST
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This Week's Poll
Which battery metal are you most bullish on over the next 12 months?
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This Week's Research
Q3 FY26 ASX Producer Recap
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Twelve mid-tier ASX gold producers, one commodity environment and the spread between best and worst AISC is now wider than the gold price was 18 months ago. That dispersion is the story. Inside: the five Tier-1 calls, the bond market re-opening for lithium, the US$110/kg policy floor decoupling Lynas from China spot, and the Q4 catalyst calendar.
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Partner Spotlight
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The right shareholders don't find you. You find them.
Cashu Group delivers independent equity research and targeted investor marketing for ASX-listed resource companies. The coverage that builds conviction, and the reach to make it count.
Find Your Shareholders
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Today's Stories
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Bloomberg
Zimbabwe Sovereign Wealth Fund Seeks $250 Million to Boost Gold Output
Zimbabwe's Mutapa Investment Fund is seeking US$250 million in debt financing to expand production at its Shamva and Jena gold mines, with US$150 million earmarked for Shamva and US$100 million for Jena. Deputy CIO Ernest Denhere confirmed at the Zimbabwe Gold Investment Conference that negotiations with lenders are already underway and no asset sales are involved. Shamva is already producing 49,000 tonnes of ore per month, a rate not seen since 1910, while the fund's combined gold cluster produced 3.6 tonnes in the most recent reporting period.
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Our Take
A state-owned fund raising debt to expand gold production is a straightforward read on where Zimbabwe thinks the gold price is going. At current prices, the economics of ramping Shamva make sense. The execution risk in Zimbabwe, as always, is the variable the numbers don't capture.
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Mining.com
Rare Earths Get Bulk of Trump's 'Uneven' $18.6B Funding Despite Small Role
BMO analysts George Heppel and Max Yerrill found that Trump's $18.6 billion critical minerals investment program, comprising $15.9 billion in loans, $2.1 billion in equity and $615 million in grants across 60 project financings, is heavily skewed toward rare earths despite the sector's relatively small market value of just $3.5 billion globally in 2024, compared to over $300 billion for copper. Metals including tungsten, antimony, nickel and cobalt are materially underinvested relative to their strategic importance, with Fireweed Metals' Mactung project, described as the world's largest undeveloped tungsten deposit, receiving only $15.8 million from the Department of Defense.
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Our Take
Rare earths get the headlines and the dollars. Tungsten, antimony and cobalt get the strategic risk and not much else. If the US is serious about supply chain security rather than optics, the funding allocation needs a serious rebalance.
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Financial Post
Copper Shrugs Off Middle East Uncertainty and Aims for Record High
Copper prices are holding near record highs despite ongoing Middle East geopolitical uncertainty, with tight supply conditions and strong demand fundamentals cited as the key drivers. The metal has largely ignored broader market volatility that has pressured other commodities. The resilience is a positive signal for major copper producers and developers globally.
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Our Take
Copper holding near record highs through a period of genuine macro noise is a strong endorsement of the structural supply-demand thesis. Producers with low-cost, permitted assets are sitting on a rare combination of price tailwind and scarcity premium.
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MSN
Barrick Beats First Quarter Profit Estimates on Higher Gold Prices
Barrick Mining beat analyst profit estimates for the first quarter of 2026, with elevated gold prices across its global portfolio driving the outperformance. The strong result adds momentum to Barrick's capital return strategy, which now includes the newly announced $3 billion share repurchase program. Full financial details were released alongside the buyback announcement.
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Our Take
A beat on earnings combined with a $3 billion buyback authorization in the same announcement gives Barrick's management a rare moment of undivided investor goodwill. The key test is whether operational execution holds through the rest of 2026 as the spinoff process adds complexity.
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Kamoa Capital
kamoacap.com
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This newsletter is for general information, education & entertainment. Kamoa Capital is not licensed and does not know your circumstances. Nothing here is financial, legal or tax advice — seek professional advice and read any PDS before acting. We aim for accuracy but make no guarantees and accept no liability. Views are opinions only and may include forward-looking statements that may not occur.
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