The Drill Down
Wednesday 15 April 2026 · Part 1
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Lead Insight
Lithium Price Could Double as Demand for EVs Rises, Says UBS
UBS co-head of mining research Lachlan Shaw says lithium is in its third major price upcycle, with prices trebling from cycle lows. The bank has lifted its 2026 spodumene forecast 74% to US$3,131/t, citing a supply deficit that deepened in 2025 as demand grew 26% while supply grew only 18%. BESS demand is forecast to grow from 8% to 42% of total lithium consumption by 2035, with Chinese mine enforcement placing roughly 15% of global supply in question.
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Our Take
UBS has lifted its spodumene forecast 74% to US$3,131/t. The real piece missing from most commentary is BESS. Energy storage goes from 8% of lithium demand to 42% by 2035 on UBS numbers. Supply grew 18% in 2025. Demand grew 26%. That gap does not close itself, especially with Chinese mine enforcement pulling 15% of global supply into question. Mothballed Australian operations are the obvious beneficiaries, but restarting a mine is not flicking a switch. The producers who kept their lights on during the downturn will continue to outperform.
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Commodity Prices
Precious Metals (USD/toz)
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Gold
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$4,841
+2.11%
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Silver
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$80
+5.26%
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Platinum
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$2,104
+1.93%
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Palladium
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$1,581
+0.46%
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Base Metals & Commodities
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Copper USD/lb
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$6.13
+1.34%
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Nickel USD/lb
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$8.25
+2.67%
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Zinc USD/lb
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$1.50
+0.49%
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Lead USD/lb
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$0.87
+0.39%
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WTI Crude USD/bbl
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$91.82
-0.27%
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Prices updated as of 15 Apr 2026, 8:03 am AEST
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Market Movers
Winners & Losers: TSX/TSXV Markets
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Canadian Copper
Secured up to C$96M in project financing for its Murray Brook and Caribou Process Plant (Bathurst Complex) in New Brunswick, with OR Royalties providing C$38.35M in exchange for a 20% life-of-mine silver and gold stream, and Ocean Partners providing C$48M in project debt for 100% off-take rights.
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Silver Crown Royalties
Announced a fully allocated C$4.5M non-brokered private placement at C$14.00 per share, a 5% premium to the prior closing price, with 321,429 shares to be issued to strategic investors. Offering is expected to close around 17 April 2026.
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Carlin Gold
Closed a C$2.16M private placement at C$0.30 per unit for its Nevada mineral properties, with senior strategic advisor Cal Everett acquiring 966,667 units for C$290,000, lifting his beneficial ownership to approximately 6.9% of issued shares on an undiluted basis.
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Bayhorse Silver
Announced a brokered LIFE offering of up to 57.14M units at C$0.07 per unit for gross proceeds of up to C$4.0M, with Red Cloud Securities acting as sole agent. Proceeds earmarked for the Bayhorse Silver Mine and adjacent Pegasus Porphyry Copper Project in Idaho.
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Pulsar Helium
ABCrescent filed an early warning report disclosing the private sale of 5.3M units and 1.075M shares, reducing its beneficial ownership from 10.94% to 7.54% of outstanding common shares. The block sale at C$1.90 per unit triggered selling pressure in a stock that has run sharply over the past six months.
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Quebec Innovative Materials
Announced a C$15M bought deal LIFE offering of 16.67M units at C$0.90 per unit, with Research Capital Corporation as sole underwriter. Proceeds will fund exploration of the company's hydrogen and helium projects and general working capital.
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Market data as of 15 Apr 2026, 8:03 AM AEST
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This Week's Poll
What's the biggest barrier to funding junior explorers right now?
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This Week's Research
China's Sulfuric Acid Export Ban: A Compound Commodity Crisis With No Modern Precedent
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China's sulfuric acid export ban creates a cascade most copper market models haven't priced in. Our 17-page memo traces the full transmission chain: supply-demand modelling, exposure analysis across eight major producers, substitution timelines, and scenario frameworks, with clear investment implications on both sides of the structural divide.
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Today's Stories
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Reuters
DRC Copper and Cobalt Miners Cut Chemical Use as Iran War Disrupts Supplies
Congo's leading copper and cobalt producers have had key leaching chemical orders cancelled or withdrawn this month, with a 2,000-tonne SMBS order cancelled outright and a further 1,800-tonne shipment withdrawn after contracts were signed. Miners including CMOC, Glencore and Eurasian Resources Group are cutting chemical consumption to stretch stocks and considering reducing cobalt output as Hormuz-linked disruptions tighten sulphuric acid and SMBS availability across the Copperbelt.
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Our Take
Cobalt output cuts in the DRC mean EV battery supply chains feel the Iran war before the ceasefire is resolved. Producers without integrated acid supply are the most exposed.
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Reuters
Middle East War Drives Up Codelco Copper Costs in Chile
The Middle East war has pushed Codelco's cash cost up by at least 10 cents per pound, a material impact for the world's largest copper producer. Chairman Maximo Pacheco said the company pre-purchased enough sulphuric acid to cover the full year before prices started rising, providing near-term insulation, but noted that operational continuity is becoming harder across the industry. Codelco remains on track for its 2026 production target of 1.344 million tonnes of copper.
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Our Take
10 cents per pound is real money at Codelco's scale. The miners who pre-purchased reagents are insulated for now. Everyone else is repricing in real time.
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Reuters
Aurubis CEO Expects US Copper Demand to Reduce Comex Stockpile
There are 532,000 metric tonnes of copper sitting in Comex warehouses, nearly a quarter of annual US consumption, after traders pre-positioned metal ahead of potential tariffs. Aurubis CEO Toralf Haag said the stockpile should draw down over coming months as local demand absorbs the inventory, though he declined to estimate where stocks would stand by year end. The Comex arbitrage reopened last week, incentivising further shipments to the US.
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Our Take
532,000 tonnes locked in US warehouses is a buffer for American industry, not the global market. Ex-US supply remains tight while that metal stays stationary.
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Reuters
China Lifts BHP Iron Ore Bans After Executive Visit, Sources Say
China has lifted procurement bans on BHP Group's iron ore, ending a dispute that had restricted access to the key steelmaking ingredient. The move coincided with incoming CEO Brandon Craig's first trip to China, signaling improved diplomatic relations between the mining giant and its largest customer market.
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Our Take
This removes a major overhang for BHP shareholders and should provide immediate relief to iron ore pricing concerns. The timing with Craig's China visit suggests BHP's executive diplomacy is paying dividends for market access.
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Accenture
Accenture to Lead Six-Month Sprint to Secure US Critical Mineral Supply Chains
Accenture Federal Services will lead a six-month engineering sprint to deliver early operating capability for the US Department of Energy's Critical Mineral and Materials to Unlock Supply initiative, working alongside all DOE National Laboratories and commercial partner Databricks Federal. The platform will use AI-powered workflows to analyse real-world supply chain risks and data, with initial capability targeted by early summer.
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Our Take
AI-powered supply chain mapping is useful, but the US critical minerals problem is a physical one, not a data one. Knowing where the gaps are faster does not close them any quicker.
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Upcoming Events
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Annual Geoscience Exploration Seminar (AGES) 2026
14-15 Apr 2026 · Alice Springs Convention Centre
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Resourcing Tomorrow Hong Kong
16-17 Apr 2026 · Four Seasons Hotel, Hong Kong
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Sydney Resources Round-up
5-7 May 2026 · Hyatt Regency, Sydney
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Sydney Mining Club
6 May 2026 · Leading Edge · Hinchcliff House, Sydney
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121 Mining Investment
11-12 May 2026 · London
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Gold Coast Investment Showcase
11-12 Jun 2026 · Gold Coast
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RIU Resources Investor Roadshow
25 Aug 2026 · Melbourne
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Kamoa Capital
kamoacap.com
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This newsletter is for general information, education & entertainment. Kamoa Capital is not licensed and does not know your circumstances. Nothing here is financial, legal or tax advice — seek professional advice and read any PDS before acting. We aim for accuracy but make no guarantees and accept no liability. Views are opinions only and may include forward-looking statements that may not occur.
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