The Drill Down
Thursday 16 April 2026 · Part 1
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Presented By
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ASX: TM1
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Australia's Next Major PGM Discovery
Terra Metals' Dante Project hosts large-scale Bushveld-style copper-PGE sulfide reefs just 15km from BHP's $1.7Bn Nebo-Babel development. With world-class polymetallic mineralisation from surface and strong metallurgical outcomes, Dante is rapidly emerging as Australia's next major PGM system.
Explore the Discovery
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Lead Insight
Silver Faces Sixth Year of Deficit With Stock Drawdown Raising Squeeze Risks
The silver market is heading for a sixth consecutive year of structural deficit, with 762 million troy ounces drawn from stocks since 2021, raising the risk of a renewed liquidity squeeze despite weaker near-term demand expectations, according to the Silver Institute and Metals Focus. Silver is currently down 35% from its January record high of $121.6 per ounce following a 147% surge in 2025 driven by frenzied retail buying.
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Our Take
Six years of deficit and 762 million ounces drawn from stocks is not a short-term dislocation. The squeeze risk is real and the correction from January highs has likely created a better entry point than the retail frenzy offered.
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Commodity Prices
Precious Metals (USD/toz)
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Gold
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$4,791
-1.03%
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Silver
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$79
-0.76%
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Platinum
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$2,110
+1.19%
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Palladium
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$1,558
-1.62%
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Base Metals & Commodities
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Copper USD/lb
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$6.13
-0.06%
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Nickel USD/lb
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$8.24
-0.08%
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Zinc USD/lb
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$1.53
+1.72%
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Lead USD/lb
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$0.89
+1.57%
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WTI Crude USD/bbl
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$90.84
-0.60%
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Prices updated as of 16 Apr 2026, 8:03 am AEST
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Market Movers
Winners & Losers: TSX/TSXV Markets
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Tinka Resources
No specific catalyst identified. The move came on significantly above-average volume, suggesting institutional accumulation or block buying. Tinka's Ayawilca zinc-silver project in Peru is the likely focus for any undisclosed interest.
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Lithium Ionic
No specific catalyst identified. Move appears to be a dead cat bounce following a steep multi-week sell-off. Broader lithium sector sentiment has improved on UBS's revised spodumene forecasts, providing a supportive backdrop for oversold names.
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Tincorp Metals
Continues to run following the 10 April filing of an updated MRE for the Santa Barbara Gold-Copper Project in Ecuador, prepared by SRK Consulting. The resource includes 29.8Mt at 0.73g/t Au indicated and 205.7Mt at 0.52g/t Au inferred, with gold recoveries of up to 85.5% from initial metallurgical test work.
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Mogotes Metals
Signed an option-to-joint-venture agreement with Kennecott Exploration, a Rio Tinto subsidiary, over the Copper Cliff gold-copper porphyry in Montana. Best historic intercept of 1,252.5m at 0.41g/t Au and 0.34% Cu from 665m. Despite the new project, is this a pivot away from Vicuna?
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Salazar Resources
No specific catalyst identified. Pullback on above-average volume with no accompanying news release. Salazar holds copper-gold exploration assets in Ecuador. The selling pattern suggests a larger holder exiting rather than news-driven pressure.
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Silver Viper Minerals
No specific catalyst identified. Decline on above-average volume with no news, continuing a retreat from the December peak. Silver Viper holds gold-silver assets in Sonora, Mexico, and has been caught in broader profit-taking across silver exploration names.
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Market data as of 16 Apr 2026, 8:03 AM AEST
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This Week's Poll
What's the biggest barrier to funding junior explorers right now?
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This Week's Research
China's Sulfuric Acid Export Ban: A Compound Commodity Crisis With No Modern Precedent
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China's sulfuric acid export ban creates a cascade most copper market models haven't priced in. Our 17-page memo traces the full transmission chain: supply-demand modelling, exposure analysis across eight major producers, substitution timelines, and scenario frameworks, with clear investment implications on both sides of the structural divide.
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Today's Stories
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Bloomberg
China's Aluminum Exports to Surge as Mideast Disruptions Persist
Chinese aluminum exports are expected to surge in coming months as buyers look for alternative sources to offset disruptions in the Persian Gulf, with the Iran conflict choking supply from a region that accounts for about 9% of global output. Annual exports could match or exceed the record 6.7 million tonnes shipped in 2024, with international prices showing their biggest premium to the Chinese market since 2022, creating an opening for smelters sitting on six-year-high local inventories.
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Our Take
China stepping in as the swing supplier for Gulf aluminum tightens the West's leverage over Beijing at exactly the wrong moment. The more indispensable China becomes to global metal supply, the harder it is to run a credible decoupling strategy.
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Mining Weekly
PGMs, China's Stockpiling Spur Mining Production Leap, Minerals Council Reports
Statistics South Africa has reported that the country's mining production increased by 9.7% year-on-year in February, with platinum group metals, chromium ore and manganese ore among the key drivers. Rising geopolitical and economic uncertainty is prompting countries, particularly China, to stockpile minerals such as iron ore, chrome and manganese, pushing demand higher, while robust investment interest is supporting increased global production of gold and PGMs.
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Our Take
A 9.7% production jump is a strong number for South African mining, but the driver is Chinese strategic stockpiling rather than organic demand recovery. When that buying pauses, the headline reverses quickly.
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Shanghai Metals Market
SMM April 15 Automotive Battery Market Summary
China's automotive storage battery market remains sluggish, with dealers in Hubei reporting slow inventory digestion at over one and a half months of stock. Manufacturers in Zhejiang reported weak replacement demand and cautious purchasing from dealers, with factory operating rates running at approximately 80% to avoid further inventory build, while Guangdong manufacturers noted obstructed battery exports compounding the domestic off-season slowdown.
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Our Take
Weak Chinese battery demand combined with obstructed exports is a soft signal for lead and lithium. If factory utilisation stays at 80% heading into peak season, the demand assumptions underpinning battery metals forecasts need revisiting.
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Bloomberg
CATL Earmarks $4.4 Billion in New Unit for Supply Chain Security
CATL has committed $4.4 billion to a new business unit targeting critical minerals supply chain security, covering exploration, metals processing, and chemical product sales across lithium, nickel, and phosphorus. The move takes the world's largest battery manufacturer directly into upstream mining and processing territory. It signals that CATL is no longer content to rely on third-party suppliers for the materials underpinning its core business.
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Our Take
When the world's dominant battery maker decides to deploy $4.4 billion into upstream minerals, it compresses the commercial space available to independent critical minerals producers and streamers. Junior and mid-tier lithium and nickel plays need to think hard about where they sit in a supply chain that CATL is actively trying to own.
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Financial Post
Copper Prices Slip as Traders Eye Talks to End Iran Conflict
Copper prices declined as traders monitored potential negotiations to end the Iran conflict, with the US and Iran considering extending their ceasefire to allow more time for peace talks. The move erased part of the geopolitical risk premium that had recently supported copper prices. No specific price levels were provided in the source material.
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Our Take
Copper's sensitivity to Middle East ceasefire signals shows how much of its recent support has been geopolitical rather than fundamental, and investors should not conflate a risk premium with genuine demand-side strength when sizing exposure.
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Upcoming Events
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Resourcing Tomorrow Hong Kong
16-17 Apr 2026 · Four Seasons Hotel, Hong Kong (ongoing)
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Sydney Resources Round-up
5-7 May 2026 · Hyatt Regency, Sydney
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Sydney Mining Club
6 May 2026 · Leading Edge · Hinchcliff House, Sydney
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Kamoa Capital
kamoacap.com
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This newsletter is for general information, education & entertainment. Kamoa Capital is not licensed and does not know your circumstances. Nothing here is financial, legal or tax advice — seek professional advice and read any PDS before acting. We aim for accuracy but make no guarantees and accept no liability. Views are opinions only and may include forward-looking statements that may not occur.
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