The Drill Down
Wednesday 22 April 2026 · Part 2
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Partner Spotlight
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The right shareholders don't find you. You find them.
Cashu Group delivers independent equity research and targeted investor marketing for ASX-listed resource companies. The coverage that builds conviction, and the reach to make it count.
Find Your Shareholders
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Lead Insight
Rio Tinto Bolsters Copper Production, Eyes Data Centre Building Boom
Rio Tinto has detailed its copper production ramp-up outlook to investors, citing the US AI capital expenditure boom as a key demand driver. The company pointed to its Oyu Tolgoi copper mine in Mongolia as central to its growth strategy. The update frames Rio Tinto as a direct beneficiary of data centre construction demand.
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Our Take
Oyu Tolgoi is real production. The data centre demand angle is real too. Rio doesn't need the AI story to justify this asset, but it doesn't hurt.
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Commodity Prices
Precious Metals (USD/toz)
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Gold
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$4,769
+1.04%
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Silver
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$79
+2.53%
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Platinum
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$2,082
+2.70%
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Palladium
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$1,574
+1.92%
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Base Metals & Commodities
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Copper USD/lb
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$6.11
+0.67%
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Nickel USD/lb
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$8.22
-0.63%
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Zinc USD/lb
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$1.56
+0.84%
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Lead USD/lb
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$0.89
+0.50%
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WTI Crude USD/bbl
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$88.64
-1.15%
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Prices updated as of 22 Apr 2026, 3:48 pm AEST
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Market Movers
Winners & Losers — ASX Markets
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Ardiden Limited
Continued momentum from yesterday's drill results at the Astoria deposit, Rouyn Gold Project in Quebec. Best intercept to date: 29.15m at 4.96g/t Au including 6m at 20.78g/t, with mineralisation open along strike and at depth across a 15,000m campaign.
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Meteoric Resources NL
Secured a $40 million placement at $0.17, at market price with no discount, to advance the Caldeira rare earths project in Brazil toward a Final Investment Decision. The raise was significantly oversubscribed. Move also carries read-across from USA Rare Earth's $2.8 billion acquisition of Brazil's Serra Verde, announced Monday.
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Sunstone Metals Ltd
Yesterday's Bramaderos Scoping Study delivered a post-tax NPV of US$0.9 billion at a US$3,500/oz base gold price, rising to US$1.9 billion at spot. The study outlines a 23-year open-pit operation at 10Mtpa, producing 135,000 oz AuEq annually in the first eight years at AISC of US$1,499/oz, with pre-production capex of US$511 million.
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VHM Limited
Stock resuming trade after a fully underwritten placement of A$5.0 million at A$0.26, a 19.4% discount to the prior close. Funds support early engineering and procurement for the Goschen Rare Earth and Mineral Sands Project ahead of a mid-2026 Final Investment Decision. Selling is consistent with routine placement-day dilution pressure.
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West Coast Silver Limited
Released its inaugural JORC MRE for Elizabeth Hill today: 2.8Moz at 617g/t Ag, with a high-grade subset of 2.72Moz at 1,114g/t from 76,000 tonnes. Sell-off is profit-taking after the stock ran approximately 240% over the past year into the resource release.
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EQ Resources Limited
No specific catalyst identified. Australia's only producing tungsten miner has attracted heavy coverage and positioning as a critical minerals play, making it prone to sharp reversals. Today's move is consistent with routine volatility in a crowded, well-traded stock.
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Market data as of 22 Apr 2026, 4:10 pm AEST
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This Week's Poll
Where is copper heading in Q2 2026?
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○ Pulling back below $5.50
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This Week's Research
The Processing Gap: China's Chokehold on Global Mineral Refining
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China controls refining and processing of 19 of the 20 strategic minerals tracked by the IEA, with average share above 70% across the battery complex. Concentration is intensifying, not easing. The 2026 copper TC/RC benchmark settled at US$0/t, the lowest on record, a mechanism quietly destroying non-Chinese smelting capacity. The supply deficits arrive from 2029. The processing facilities needed to address them take 10 to 17 years to build. This report quantifies the gap, maps where capital is already moving, and identifies where it isn't.
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Today's Stories
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Mining.com
Aluminum Faces 'Black Swan' Supply Shock, Mercuria Says
Commodity trader Mercuria has warned that aluminum is facing a black swan supply shock, with its mining research head making the remarks at the Financial Times Commodities Global Summit in Lausanne, Switzerland. The disruption is described as already exceeding the scale of previous major supply crises. The warning comes against a backdrop of ongoing Middle East tensions and growing concern about industrial metals supply.
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Our Take
When a major trading house calls a supply shock worse than anything seen before, aluminum producers and downstream consumers should be reviewing their hedge books immediately. For investors, this is a potential catalyst for re-rating aluminum-exposed equities.
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Syria Report
Syria Establishes State Mining Company Under Presidential Decree
Syria has established a new state mining company through Presidential Decree No. 44 of 2026, signalling the new government's intent to formalise and develop the country's mining sector. The decree marks an early step in building state-controlled resource extraction capacity. Further details on the company's mandate and target commodities were not provided.
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Our Take
A post-conflict state formalising mining through presidential decree is a foundational step, but investors should treat Syria as a jurisdiction that is years away from being commercially actionable. The longer-term watch is which foreign miners move early to establish relationships as the regulatory framework takes shape.
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Mining.com
Oil Market 'Mispricing' Worst Supply Shock Ever, Analysts Warn
Analysts are warning that oil markets are mispricing what they describe as the worst supply shock ever recorded, with the current disruption said to already exceed the scale of the 1990 Gulf crisis. Tighter markets are amplifying the shock, with direct implications for energy-intensive mining operations and freight costs. The warning escalates existing debate about mining sector exposure to energy price volatility.
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Our Take
If this supply shock assessment is accurate, energy cost assumptions embedded in mining project economics across the sector are materially understated, which is a risk that has not yet been priced into most mining equities. Operators with locked-in energy contracts or renewable power sources are suddenly looking much better positioned.
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Australian Financial Review
Gold Struggles to Stay a Safe Haven Amid Central Bank, ETF Sell-Offs
Gold is under pressure from institutional selling despite ongoing geopolitical conflict, with both central banks and retail-focused ETFs liquidating bullion holdings. Since the outbreak of the US-Iran war, gold has declined 8.1% to US$4,806 per ounce, though that represents a recovery from an earlier peak drawdown of nearly 15%. The AFR argues the metal is failing to fulfil its conventional safe-haven function under current market conditions.
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Our Take
An 8% pullback from conflict-driven highs is not a collapse, it is repositioning. Central bank selling into strength is a rational portfolio move, not a signal of lost confidence in gold. At US$4,806, gold is still pricing in significant risk premium. The more important question for producers is whether cost inflation from the same geopolitical disruption is compressing margins faster than the price decline would suggest.
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Upcoming Events
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Sydney Resources Round-up
5-7 May 2026 · Hyatt Regency, Sydney
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Sydney Mining Club
6 May 2026 · Leading Edge · Hinchcliff House, Sydney
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121 Mining Investment
11-12 May 2026 · London
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Kamoa Capital
kamoacap.com
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This newsletter is for general information, education & entertainment. Kamoa Capital is not licensed and does not know your circumstances. Nothing here is financial, legal or tax advice — seek professional advice and read any PDS before acting. We aim for accuracy but make no guarantees and accept no liability. Views are opinions only and may include forward-looking statements that may not occur.
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