The Drill Down
Monday 27 April 2026 · Part 2
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Partner Spotlight
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The right shareholders don't find you. You find them.
Cashu Group delivers independent equity research and targeted investor marketing for ASX-listed resource companies. The coverage that builds conviction, and the reach to make it count.
Find Your Shareholders
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Lead Insight
US and EU Seal Strategic Critical Minerals Agreements
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and EU Trade Commissioner Maros Sefcovic signed a memorandum of understanding on critical minerals cooperation on 24 April, marking a formal alignment of Western supply chain strategy outside China. The deal has direct implications for Australian and global critical minerals producers seeking to position within Western-aligned demand frameworks. No financial commitments were disclosed in the announcement.
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Our Take
The MOU changes nothing on the ground. No offtakes. No smelters. No TC/RC relief. Until Western governments write actual purchase orders, this is just diplomacy with a minerals coat of paint.
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Commodity Prices
Precious Metals (USD/toz)
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Gold
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$4,711
+0.04%
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Silver
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$76
--
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Platinum
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$2,015
+0.07%
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Palladium
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$1,491
-1.02%
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Base Metals & Commodities
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Copper USD/lb
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$6.10
+0.29%
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Nickel USD/lb
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$8.66
+1.92%
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Zinc USD/lb
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$1.58
+0.25%
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Lead USD/lb
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$0.89
+0.38%
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WTI Crude USD/bbl
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$96.08
+1.78%
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Prices updated as of 27 Apr 2026, 3:48 pm AEST
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Market Movers
Winners & Losers — ASX Markets
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Altair Minerals Limited
London-headquartered gold major Endeavour Mining has taken a 9.9% strategic stake in Altair through a A$28.2 million premium private placement. Altair is advancing the Greater Oko Gold Project in Guyana, a large-scale Birimian-like greenstone belt system described as one of the last untested gold corridors of its scale in the Americas. The Endeavour endorsement is a significant validation for a junior that raised at A$0.016 per share just five months ago.
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Loyal Metals Limited
Indonesian coal giant PT Bumi Resources has entered a Scheme Implementation Deed to acquire 100% of Loyal Metals at A$0.45 per share, valuing the company at approximately A$79.1 million. The all-cash offer represents a 40.6% premium to Loyal's last close of A$0.32. The board unanimously recommends the scheme and major shareholders holding 28.6% have committed to vote in favour. Implementation is targeted for mid-August 2026, subject to shareholder and court approval.
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Corella Resources Ltd
Signed a binding heads of agreement to acquire a 75% interest in the Chobe Project in WA's West Arunta region, adjacent to WA1 Resources' Luni niobium project and Encounter Resources' Aileron project. The project is considered highly prospective for niobium, rare earths, and IOCG mineralisation over a 2,000 sq. km land package. A $5 million placement at $0.012 per share was heavily oversubscribed to fund the acquisition.
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Toubani Resources Limited
Severe country risk repricing following coordinated militant attacks across Mali on 25 April, including strikes on Bamako's main airport, military bases, and the assassination of Mali's Defence Minister. Toubani holds the Kobada Gold Project in Mali. The attacks, claimed jointly by al-Qaeda affiliate JNIM and Tuareg separatist group FLA, represent one of the most significant security escalations in the country in years.
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Resolute Mining Limited
Selling on the same Mali security escalation as TRE. Resolute operates the Syama Gold Mine in southern Mali, one of the country's largest gold operations. The scale and coordination of the April 25 attacks has materially raised the perceived operational and sovereign risk for all Mali-exposed miners.
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Whitehaven Coal Limited
No specific catalyst identified. Broad energy sector sell-off weighing on thermal and metallurgical coal equities. Whitehaven is Australia's largest pure-play coal producer, with assets in NSW and Queensland, and is sensitive to moves in energy commodity sentiment.
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Market data as of 27 Apr 2026, 4:10 pm AEST
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This Week's Poll
Which deep-dive would you most want to read next?
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○ Critical minerals policy
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○ Exploration Company Deep Dive
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○ Battery metals supply chain
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This Week's Research
The US Federal Framework: Capital, Permitting, and the Race to Supply Chain Sovereignty
The US Federal Framework: Capital, Permitting, and the Race to Supply Chain Sovereignty is a 17-page institutional-grade research memo produced by Kamoa Capital.
It is a structured analytical framework built for investors, mining executives, and government counterparts who need to understand how the US federal critical minerals architecture actually works and where the commercial opportunities and risks concentrate.
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China's Chokehold on Global Mineral Refining
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China controls refining of 19 of the 20 strategic minerals tracked by the IEA. This 17-page intelligence report quantifies the chokehold, maps the US$500B–$1.4T investment gap, and identifies where Western capital can still compete. Built on IEA, S&P Global, BloombergNEF and proprietary Kamoa Capital analysis of 2,419 processing facilities across 113 countries.
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Today's Stories
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Australian Financial Review
European Lithium Poised to Announce $1.2b Bid From Nasdaq-Listed Biz
AFR's Street Talk reports that European Lithium (ASX: EUR) is poised to announce a takeover bid from Critical Metals Corp (NASDAQ: CRML), its dominant NASDAQ-listed subsidiary, at an implied value of approximately A$1.2 billion. The move would formalise the merger that Street Talk first flagged on April 23, noting the pair had been in informal discussions for several months. Critical Metals holds the Wolfsberg Lithium Project in Austria and a 92.5% interest in the Tanbreez rare earth project in Greenland. European Lithium holds A$356 million in cash and a 37.3% stake in CRML, making it the largest single shareholder.
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Our Take
The structural logic has always been obvious: Critical Metals needs EUR's cash to develop its projects, and EUR shareholders get direct exposure to Wolfsberg and Tanbreez rather than a discounted holding company. A binding offer would collapse a discount that has frustrated EUR shareholders for months. The Greenland regulatory approval on Tanbreez remains the key outstanding variable.
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Mining.com
Copper and Silver Miner Lumina's Toronto IPO Raises $297 Million
Lumina Metals Corp. raised C$406.2 million (US$297 million) in an upsized Toronto IPO, pricing 25 million shares at C$12.50 each alongside 7.5 million shares sold by Executive Chairman Ross Beaty's charitable foundation. The offer was led by BMO, National Bank Financial, Morgan Stanley, RBC, and CIBC. Lumina is advancing three large-scale sediment-hosted copper-silver deposits in Poland's Kupferschiefer belt and plans a subsequent listing on the Warsaw Stock Exchange.
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Our Take
A C$406 million IPO upsized from C$344 million at pricing tells you the institutional demand for quality copper development stories remains strong. Ross Beaty's involvement as Executive Chairman is a material credibility signal. The Polish assets are strategically positioned for European offtake at a time when the continent is actively trying to onshore critical minerals supply chains.
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Financial Times
Mercuria to Invest in Smelters and Mines as It Expands Metals Push
Mercuria CEO Marco Dunand told the FT Commodities Global Summit the Geneva-based trading house plans to acquire stakes in mines and smelters, with copper a particular focus, as it builds its metals division to match the scale of its oil trading operations. Mercuria's metals push, led by former Trafigura co-head of metals Kostas Bintas, has already deployed more than US$3.5 billion in metals financing and prepayment deals in just over a year, including a US$1.2 billion facility to fund the buyout of major Kazakh copper producer Kazakhmys and prepayment deals in Bulgaria, Chile, the DRC, and Zambia.
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Our Take
When a major energy trader deploys US$3.5 billion into metals in 14 months, it is not a diversification play, it is a structural conviction call on copper. Mercuria is positioning ahead of the supply deficit it has been predicting since 2021. For juniors with quality copper assets, the emergence of Mercuria as an active co-investor and pre-financier alongside Trafigura and Glencore is a meaningful expansion of the available capital pool.
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Geomechanics.io
Kyrgyzstan Courts Western Mining Capital With Tightly Controlled Project Reset
Kyrgyzstan is actively courting Western mining capital through a regulatory reset that excludes state-backed gold producers and emphasises clearer ownership structures and risk frameworks for international companies. The repositioning reflects a broader Central Asian trend of orienting resource sectors toward Western partners amid shifting geopolitical alliances. No specific projects or investment targets were disclosed in the report.
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Our Take
Regulatory resets in frontier jurisdictions are only as durable as the political will behind them, and Kyrgyzstan's history with international miners warrants caution. The exclusion of state-backed producers is an interesting signal, but investors will need to see consistent policy execution before committing meaningful capital.
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Kamoa Capital
kamoacap.com
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This newsletter is for general information, education & entertainment. Kamoa Capital is not licensed and does not know your circumstances. Nothing here is financial, legal or tax advice — seek professional advice and read any PDS before acting. We aim for accuracy but make no guarantees and accept no liability. Views are opinions only and may include forward-looking statements that may not occur.
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