The Drill Down
Tuesday 5 May 2026 · Part 2
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Presented By
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ASX: KAO
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Namibia's Copper Belt.
Ready to Drill.
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69.6%
Peak Cu Grade
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40km
Mineralised Trend
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89%
Cu Recovery
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Two fully permitted copper projects in Namibia, an emerging exploration jurisdiction on the radar of global miners. The Chalkos Project carries peak surface grades of 69.6% Cu and 2,030 g/t Ag across a 40km mineralised trend. Drilling commences soon.
Discover Kaoko
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Lead Insight
Regis and Vault Agree to Merge, Creating $10.7 Billion Gold Mining Giant
Regis Resources and Vault Minerals have agreed to an all-share merger that will create a combined entity valued at $10.7 billion, forming the third largest ASX-listed gold miner. The two West Australian companies say the combined entity will produce $4.5 billion in gold annually. The deal remains subject to shareholder approval.
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Our Take
The strategy to "be larger" to attractive passive money and drop your cost of capital is a popular playbook in the WA gold sector. The economic value delivered might be less obvious. The combined group with 1.9bn cash, no debt and significant cashflow make this a serious future M&A platform.
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Commodity Prices
Precious Metals (USD/toz)
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Gold
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$4,547
+0.52%
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Silver
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$73
+0.67%
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Platinum
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$1,977
+1.30%
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Palladium
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$1,500
+1.68%
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Base Metals & Commodities
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Copper USD/lb
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$5.90
+0.63%
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Nickel USD/lb
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$8.78
+0.02%
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Zinc USD/lb
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$1.51
-0.14%
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Lead USD/lb
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$0.88
+0.30%
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WTI Crude USD/bbl
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$104.38
-1.92%
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Prices updated as of 5 May 2026, 3:48 pm AEST
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Market Movers
Winners & Losers | ASX Markets
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Great Boulder Resources Ltd
Great Boulder acquired Westgold's Peak Hill Gold Project near Fortnum, WA for A$58.3 million plus a 1.0% NSR, funded by A$40 million in new equity. The deal includes ore processing rights at Westgold's Murchison hubs and a strategic collaboration to evaluate the Side Well Gold Project, with Westgold taking a 19.9% scrip interest in GBR.
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NH3 Clean Energy Limited
The WAH2 Clean Ammonia Project in the Pilbara was awarded Federal Major Project Status, one of fewer than 30 nationally, streamlining approvals through the Major Projects Facilitation Agency. An independent ACIL Allen assessment also forecast A$7.3 billion in GDP benefits and a Benefit Cost Ratio of 3.07, strengthening financing applications to NAIF and Export Finance Australia ahead of a targeted FID by end-2026.
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Vault Minerals Limited
Vault and Regis Resources announced a merger of equals creating Australia's third-largest primary ASX-listed gold producer, targeting over 700,000 oz per year from five operating assets. The deal values the combined entity at A$10.7 billion. Vault shareholders receive 0.6947 Regis shares per share, giving them approximately 49% of the merged group.
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Hot Chili Limited
Classic buy-the-rumour, sell-the-fact reaction. The La Verde drilling update released on resumption from halt showed hole DKD039 returned 725m at 0.42% CuEq from 18m depth, the widest intersection at La Verde to date, with a 62m high-grade zone at 1.03% CuEq from 671m. The result was strong, but the stock had already run over 100% in the prior three months. The ASX price query response added to the noise.
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Catalyst Metals Limited
Catalyst provided an update on the Plutonic Gold Belt including feedstock planning from the Trident underground deposit, 25km northeast of the Plutonic mill. The company has outlined a 10-year production plan targeting approximately 200,000 oz per year from five mines, double the current rate, with Trident a key contributor to that growth runway.
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Regis Resources Limited
Regis fell on the merger announcement as the market's read was that the 0.6947 exchange ratio favours Vault shareholders. The near-equal 51/49 ownership split on a deal framed as a merger of equals suggests Regis is paying a meaningful premium relative to the pre-announcement trading of both stocks.
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Market data as of 5 May 2026, 4:10 pm AEST
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This Week's Poll
Which jurisdiction offers the best risk-adjusted exploration upside right now?
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This Week's Research
The US Federal Framework: Capital, Permitting, and the Race to Supply Chain Sovereignty
The US Federal Framework: Capital, Permitting, and the Race to Supply Chain Sovereignty is a 17-page institutional-grade research memo produced by Kamoa Capital.
It is a structured analytical framework built for investors, mining executives, and government counterparts who need to understand how the US federal critical minerals architecture actually works and where the commercial opportunities and risks concentrate.
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China's Chokehold on Global Mineral Refining
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China controls refining of 19 of the 20 strategic minerals tracked by the IEA. This 17-page intelligence report quantifies the chokehold, maps the US$500B–$1.4T investment gap, and identifies where Western capital can still compete. Built on IEA, S&P Global, BloombergNEF and proprietary Kamoa Capital analysis of 2,419 processing facilities across 113 countries.
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Today's Stories
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Kitco
Argentina Mining Exports to Jump 49% in 2026, Executive Says
Argentina's mining exports are forecast to reach $9 billion in 2026, up 49% from the $6.056 billion recorded in 2025, according to the president of the Argentine Chamber of Mining Companies. Under President Milei's RIGI investment regime, 13 projects totalling $42 billion have been submitted, with seven worth $7.9 billion already approved. Argentina has also moved from 12th to 7th in global exploration destination rankings, with BHP and Rio Tinto among those committing capital.
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Our Take
The pace of change in Argentina's mining investment climate under Milei is real. When BHP and Rio Tinto commit capital somewhere, others follow. The RIGI approval pipeline will be the number to watch over the next 12 months.
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Barchart
3 Under-the-Radar Gold Mining Companies Analysts Think Will Surge More Than 50%
With gold having pulled back from its January peak of $5,600 to around $4,500, analyst coverage is rotating toward mid-tier producers with margin expansion potential. Equinox Gold (EQX) carries a consensus "Strong Buy" with an average price target implying 47% upside. SSR Mining (SSRM) trades at 7.3 times forward earnings with analysts projecting 44% upside on average. IAMGOLD (IAG) rounds out the list at 7.7 times forward earnings, with one analyst projecting upside of up to 108%.
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Our Take
The mid-tier gold producers are where the leverage lives in a gold bull market. The majors have already repriced. The names with operational momentum and valuation room still have a longer runway, and these three fit that profile.
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Mining.com
Rio Tinto, Resource Minerals and Sidney Top April Mining Performance Rankings
Rio Tinto, Resource Minerals and Sidney were the top performers in the Mining.com April rankings, with diversified miners favoured by investors amid broad sector bullishness and mining supercycle sentiment. The rankings reflect performance across a range of metrics tracked by the publication.
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Our Take
Rio Tinto topping a monthly performance table is less surprising than the company it is keeping, and the presence of smaller names in the rankings suggests capital is moving beyond the majors in search of supercycle leverage. Investors positioned in diversified mid-tiers may be early rather than wrong.
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AFR
ASX Falls as Gold Miners Decline Ahead of RBA Rate Decision
The ASX fell ahead of the Reserve Bank of Australia's rate decision, with Northern Star and Evolution Mining both declining on the day. Regis Resources and Vault Minerals confirmed their merger, which will form the third largest ASX-listed gold producer. Broader market sentiment was also weighed down by oil price movements as ceasefire talks showed signs of strain.
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Our Take
Gold equities pulling back on a day when the Regis-Vault merger confirms a new senior producer suggests macro rate anxiety is overriding deal-driven optimism for now. For longer-term investors, broad sector softness on a strong structural day can represent a cleaner entry point.
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Kamoa Capital
kamoacap.com
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This newsletter is for general information, education & entertainment. Kamoa Capital is not licensed and does not know your circumstances. Nothing here is financial, legal or tax advice — seek professional advice and read any PDS before acting. We aim for accuracy but make no guarantees and accept no liability. Views are opinions only and may include forward-looking statements that may not occur.
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