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Why September matters more than January, and what it means for nickel.
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Indonesia's new commodity export regime takes full effect on 1 January 2027. The market is positioned for that date. The operational gate is four months earlier.
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From 1 September, PT Danantara Sumberdaya Indonesia becomes sole exporter of record for coal, palm oil and ferroalloy. That gives an entity with no trading infrastructure, no blending capability and no treasury track record 14 weeks to assume control of approximately US$28 billion in annual coal exports alone.
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Nickel is the interesting one. The September Gate lands at the same moment China's sulphuric acid export ban and the Strait of Hormuz disruption hit Indonesian HPAL economics. The cost assumptions that drove ex-Indo capital out of nickel for two years just changed on two fronts at once.
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This newsletter is for general information, education & entertainment. Kamoa Capital is not licensed and does not know your circumstances. Nothing here is financial, legal or tax advice - seek professional advice and read any PDS before acting. We aim for accuracy but make no guarantees and accept no liability. Views are opinions only and may include forward-looking statements that may not occur.
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